Rethinking Bangladesh's Reliance On Chinese Arms

Most of the domestically produced equipment is Chinese licensed and acquired through Transfer of Technology (ToT). These arms manufacturing industries don't produce any heavy or significant weapons systems like tanks, artillery systems and interceptor jets.

Previously, Bangladesh developed patrol vessels in its indigenous shipyards for the Navy. These are lightly armed and lack the seafaring capabilities unlike corvettes or frigates. Therefore, indigenous defense manufacturing and production of Dhaka are far behind self-sufficiency, which lacks technical maturity, production capability, and technological competence.

Overall, Dhaka, in the foreseeable future, lacks any ability to manufacture or produce major defense systems unless they are licensed through ToT and thus will heavily rely on arms import for modernizing its forces.

Besides cheap and low-quality equipment, reliance on Chinese inventory is suicidal due to the geopolitical realities surrounding Bangladesh's neighbors. India has been a close ally, and relations improved after the Sheikh Hasina regime took power in 2009.

That leaves Myanmar to be the only adversarial state with whom relations are strained after the 2017 Rohingya crisis . Interestingly, Myanmar's major arms supplier is China. Beijing shares a very cozy relationship with the Naypyidaw. Therefore, China will not supply any major weapons, which might give Bangladesh an edge over Myanmar.

Given such drawbacks, contemporary developments in internal and external environments require Bangladesh to strengthen its armed forces. It won a major victory against Myanmar and India in 2012 and 2014, respectively, in the international tribunals, and secured a large chunk of the maritime boundary in BoB.

Under such circumstances, it plans to develop a blue economy utilizing the natural resources like natural gas, minerals, and fisheries of the BoB. This requires bolstering the security of the BoB by placing a capable Navy including deploying large ships like Frigates. Currently, Bangladesh has few such ship s , which are not sufficient to serve such purposes.

Naval modernization is also resonated by the situation of civil war in Myanmar. Events like Tatmadaw ships bombarding the rebels near Saint Martin's Island detached the island from Bangladesh. It took the Bangladesh Navy weeks to send ships and bring in the supplies from the mainland.

There have also been several violations of airspace by the Tatmadaw in recent years . They have previously opened fire inside the sovereign territory of Bangladesh. To prevent such incidents, the Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) relies on outdated Mig-29s acquired from Russia in 1999 , and obsolete Chinese F-7BGI interceptors to secure its airspace.

In comparison, the Tatmadaw has recently imported much more modern Su-30 fighter jets from Russia . This reflects an imbalance in air power existing between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Additionally, in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), there has been an insurgency led by the Kuki Chin National Front (KNF), which has shown relentless efforts to sabotage peace talks , attack public infrastructure , and conduct remote violence . The success of Myanmar's Chin-based Kuki rebels and the tensions prevailing in Kuki communities in India's Manipur may also inspire the KNF insurgents in Bangladesh.

They operate under the guise of treacherous terrain in the CHT. This necessitates the Army acquiring modern reconnaissance vehicles and scout helicopters to conduct counterinsurgency operations in the remote areas.

Given these scenarios, Dhaka must be forthcoming in understanding the need to diversify arms imports and materialize the Forces Goal 2030. The traditional Beijing-based arms dependency must be supplanted or complemented by procuring weapons from alternative sources.

Due to the war in Ukraine, traditional Western sources like the US and UK will not be able to supply the required equipment in time. Nevertheless, Dhaka must continue robust defense cooperation and agreements with Washington and London. Given the current geopolitical rivalry, the arms trade can deepen the ties between the US and UK with Bangladesh.

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This can further curb Beijing's influence over Dhaka. Besides, France remains a potential seller, as it has become the second-largest arms exporter recently. Paris already has previously signed letters of intent in 2021 on defense cooperation with Dhaka, which should be utilized by the GoB.

Supplementing efforts to gain western sources can be reinforced by establishing ties with major arms manufacturers in the global south. India, Turkey, South Korea, and Japan remain the most viable options in this regard.

Bangladesh has accelerated its defense procurement with India with a new batch of APCs recently delivered last month. Turkey has already supplied drones , rocket artilleries and missiles to Dhaka. Defense diplomacy with both New Delhi and Ankara is being expanded by Dhaka through seminars and dialogues . These must be strengthened further in order to acquire license production by acquiring ToT of Indian and Turkish arms domestically to develop a DIB in Bangladesh.

Finally, warm relations with East Asian states like Japan and South Korea must be leveraged to diversify equipment sourcing. Tokyo is recently considering exporting arms to Dhaka , which presents a significant opportunity to access the Japanese inventory.

Moreover, South Korea has become a significant arms exporter . Bangladesh purchased one of its modern frigates, named BNS Bangabandhu , which was manufactured by South Korea in 1999. Therefore, steps must also be taken to rejuvenate such defense ties with Seoul. Materializing the initiatives above will contribute to making the AFB a capable 21st-century military.

Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan (... ) is a research data analyst at the Bangladesh Peace Observatory under the Centre for Alternatives (CA) and previously worked as a research associate-STT at the World Bank.

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