(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Elnur Enveroglu read more There are less than 3 days left before the start of the general
elections that will send the main opposition to history in Turkiye.
Voters will head to the polls on May 14, deciding the fate of
Turkiye's democracy four months after the heaviest February 6
earthquake which resulted in an unexpected economic blow. At the
same time, against the background of some emerging economic
tensions, voters in Turkiye seem quite optimistic and are confident
in the future under the leadership of the incumbent government.
Speaking to Azernews, Turkish professor from Kocaeli University
Irfan Kaya Ulger says under the current circumstances, the
anti-Erdoğan 6-party table has not gained credible status in the
eyes of the electorate, despite their alliance among
themselves .
The expert also touched on the current representation of
political parties in the parliament adding that the major focus is
on the presidential elections.
“There are no signs that any political tendency or group will
form a majority in the Parliament. Political parties will be
represented in the Parliament in proportion to their strength. The
representation of small parties in parliament will vary depending
on whether they pass the national barrier of 7%. The crucial point
is the presidential elections. If one of the candidates gets 50% in
the first round, the elections will be held on May 14, 2023. If
this is not possible, the second round of elections will be held on
May 28, 2023,” Ulger said.
According to the Turkish expert, current situation of the main
opposition parties seems not so promising to be even near to the
winning the elections.
“Under the current circumstances, the anti-Erdoğan 6-party table
has not gained credible status in the eyes of the electorate,
despite their alliance among themselves. Voters look at the
opposition as a group that has come together on the basis of
opposition to Erdoğan but has failed to put forward any positive
project for the country. In addition, the fact that a party linked
to the terrorist organization PKK supports the opposition in the
presidential elections leads to the reaction of the masses,” the
expert opined.
The professor also touched on aspects that can protect Erdogan's
charisma. Emphasizing the rapid progress in the country, he pointed
out the leaps in Turkey's domestic and foreign policy in the last
ten years.
“Despite the successive Covid-19, Ukraine war and the February
6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, which had a negative impact on
Turkiye, Erdoğan remains the favorite. Domestically, basic
infrastructure investments that have been neglected so far, the
progress made in the defense industry, and his determination to
protect Turkey's rights and interests abroad are the most important
components of Erdoğan's favorite status and appeal. I believe that
Erdoğan will be successful in the first or second round of the
elections,” the Turkish pundit underlined.
According to Irfan Kaya Ülger, although the people in Turkiye
have a different approach to political parties, there is generally
skepticism towards the candidates represented in the opposition. He
notes that the people are wary of seeing untested candidates at the
head of the state, and for this reason, they have more confidence
in Erdogan's government, which has justified itself in power for a
long time.
“There have been many polls on the election results. Some of
these polls show the opposition bloc ahead. However, I do not think
they are objective. Erdoğan is an expert in winning elections. I am
of the opinion that he will influence the undecided voters at the
last minute. Because there are many factors affecting the voting
behavior of the people in this election. Even in regions that have
been known to be CHP (RPP) voters until today, the tendencies in
favor of Erdoğan are getting stronger. It is easy to react against
Erdoğan. But when you make an untested person president, you are
embarking on an adventure. The opposition's inability to forge a
consensus in the face of huge problems, or the belief that it will
have difficulties in maintaining its commitment to the announced
program, is causing voters to turn back in favor of Erdoğan. This
is an objective assessment. You can react, fine. But this does not
give you confidence, stability and predictability. Therefore, even
in unexpected segments, preferences are changing in favor of
Erdoğan,” henoted.
Touching on the economy of Turkiye, Professor Ülger also talked
about the future prospects of Turkiye's economy, as well as the
growth of its political influence.
“Erdogan had a 2023 target. In terms of GNP and per capita
income, it was envisaged that by the 100th year of the Republic,
per capita income would be 25 thousand dollars. It did not happen
due to various internal and external factors. We can count issues
such as the influx of refugees after the Arab Spring, the fight
against terrorism, the Ukrainian war, Covid-19. There is a delay in
this regard, and I believe that if the government continues, this
target can be achieved, albeit with a slight delay. Turkey will
continue to strengthen in the defense industry, infrastructure
investments and international cooperation. The most important point
is this. Under Erdoğan's leadership, Turkey has shown great success
in defending its rights and interests in the international
arena.”
Prof. Irfan Kaya Ülgar, who described Turkey under the rule of
the opposition, said that Turkiye can look like a dead body in such
a situation. According to him, Turkiye will only play the role of
an outpost of the West.
“No country in the world can now build a plan without taking
Turkey into account. Under Erdoğan's leadership, Turkiye has become
the most powerful country in its geography. As an Ottoman successor
state, Turkiye cooperates with the West on the one hand, on the
other hand it is an Islamic country and has strengthened the
Organization of the Islamic Conference. At the same time, Turkiye
acted together with the Turkic world and established the
Organization of Turkic States. We can say that Turkiye's weight in
the international political system has increased under Erdoğan to a
degree that no one expected. If Erdoğan wins again, Turkiye's
international reputation will be even stronger. If the opposition
wins, a pause seems inevitable. Because they have not been able to
put forward a vision other than cooperating with the West,” the
pundit concluded.
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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews' deputy editor-in-chief, follow him
on @elnurmammadli1