Baku-Washington Ties In Trump Era: New Horizons On Prospects For Economic Projects

(MENAFN- AzerNews) By Ahmad Shiraliyev | AzerNEWS

The recent presidential election in the United States concluded with Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, winning decisively, outperforming his opponent in every swing state and securing a total of three hundred twelve electoral votes. Just days before the election, many experts, including university professors, had forecasted a victory for Kamala Harris, leading a large number of people to expect that outcome, which made Trump's victory even more stunning. Each of these specialists provided different reasons why the Democratic candidate should prevail. For instance, some asserted that the Democrats had not yet completed their mission of destroying the previous world order and that a decisive phase of this process would commence after November 5. While there may be some logic in this, the actual results contradict this narrative. This unexpected outcome can primarily be attributed to Trump's platform, which focused on economic development. While Harris promised continued aid to Ukraine-implying an outflow of funds-Trump proposed increasing tariffs on all imported goods by ten to twenty per cent and on goods from China by sixty per cent, thus indicating an influx of revenue. Moreover, his program included not raising the retirement age, abolishing taxes on social benefits and tips, lowering the corporate tax rate for companies manufacturing in the U.S. from twenty-one per cent to fifteen per cent, and addressing illegal immigration through mass deportations. These are precisely the messages that resonated with American voters, who were far more concerned about their immediate comfort and quality of life than about the Russo-Ukrainian war occurring in Eastern Europe or the plight of Palestinians in the Middle East. Their primary concern was the continuation of their familiar, comfortable lives-or even an improvement in their living standards-which is exactly what Trump promised.

Conversely, Trump's election aligns perfectly with the narrative of a rift between Europe and America, as he is a leader who withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement , firmly rejecting the concept of global warming. Many still recall Trump's comments urging German to meet its NATO obligation of spending two per cent of its GDP on defence. This emerging confrontation between America and Europe is also reflected in statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for a re-evaluation of the global order, asserting that the post-World War II order is unjust and no longer meets the interests of European nations. It happened in the context of an international conference attended by political and religious leaders from Europe, including Pope Francis, that shows the seriousness of these discussions. A new world order typically necessitates either a new conflict or the expansion of existing ones. This brings to mind Macron's remarks about the potential deployment of French troops to Ukraine-comments that other French officials subsequently downplayed. It is evident that these statements were intended to check the reactions of other NATO countries, and in case of lack of support, they were ultimately retracted. However, the fact that such thoughts occupy the mind of a head of state with nuclear capabilities makes the political situation in the world more dangerous.

Media agencies inform that the Biden administration and European countries are coordinating efforts to deliver previously pledged aid to Ukraine before Trump assumes office. Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, suggested that Trump might be preparing an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This indicates that the European Union and its allies are striving to bolster Ukraine to secure some progress on the battlefield ahead of Trump's inauguration. Many political analysts posit that Trump's arrival could herald a ceasefire along the frontline and the establishment of a buffer zone, resulting in the cession of thirty per cent of Ukrainian territory to Russia and a possible exchange of territories captured by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region for some of the areas occupied by Russia. While this scenario is plausible, it is crucial to remember that Trump is a businessman, and businessmen are adept at timing their contracts for optimal terms. To bring an end to the war, Trump wielding two levers of influence could choose to stop all assistance to Ukraine and reduce oil prices to ten dollars per barrel-something he mentioned in interviews before the election. Given Trump's unpredictability, it is difficult to ascertain when he might employ these tactics. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that he could first support Ukraine militarily, potentially allowing them to strike deep into Russian territory with American missiles, in order to secure tactical successes on the front. There remains a small chance that an effort to reclaim Crimea could take place before he moves to pressure both parties to negotiate. This would mean that while Ukraine may not achieve outright victory, its position could be strengthened, and Russia might retain some territory, such as part of Donetsk. It is undoubtedly that the President of the United States will play a pivotal role in concluding what has become the largest conflict since World War II. After all, who better than a businessman to negotiate an agreement?

Recently, Trump shared which world leaders he had consulted with, and notably, the head of Russia was not on that list; when this consultation will take place is known only to Trump himself. In addition to Ukraine, Trump must formulate America's policy toward Central Asia, the Caucasus, and other regions. When considering Central Asia, it is essential to recall Trump's comments regarding the withdrawal of the American military base from Afghanistan , which he labelled as a historical disgrace, threatening to dismiss any generals responsible for it. Therefore, it is not outside the realm of possibility for America to return to Central Asia-if not to Afghanistan, then perhaps to Kazakhstan or another country in the region. This area could serve as a strategic foothold against China, which Trump identified as America's primary opponent during his first term. Furthermore, as a businessman, Trump may be drawn to the region's abundant natural resources, including uranium, oil, gas, and various metals. The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project had previously attracted Trump's interest, and a revival of this initiative could be on the horizon. While he may not be primarily concerned with Europe's energy security, the financial prospects and, most importantly, increasing Europe's dependence on America may drive him back to this project. Overall, the topic of trade corridors is likely to be of substantial interest to Trump as a businessman, whether they be the Trans-Caspian corridor, Zangazur, or routes through Gwadar or Chabahar, since trade is an area where he is successful. Furthermore, the issue of corridors is on the agenda of many states and will be a significant factor in the creation of a new multipolar world. For instance, India is keen on a route through Iran's Chabahar, Armenia, Georgia, and the Black Sea to Europe, and the military and political support to Armenia is directly linked to the realization of this project. Trump may be particularly interested in the corridor connecting China, Gwadar in Pakistan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the Black Sea. This project would elevate Azerbaijan's strategic value for America, positioning it as a bridge between Asia and Europe. Consequently, Trump could seek to enhance bilateral relations with Azerbaijan to a new level, particularly given Azerbaijan's significant geopolitical location in the Caucasus. The importance of Azerbaijan is growing, as evidenced by the fact that the 29th UN Climate Change Conference is being held there, which underscores this significance. Baku is currently hosting over eighty heads of state and governments, with more than seventy thousand participants. In his speec , President Ilham Aliyev accused certain Western countries of double standards over their boycott of the event, and in the context of the absence of leaders from France, Germany, and the European Commission, it showed complicated relations between Azerbaijan and Europe. However, the presence of Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, should be noted. Historically, Azerbaijan has maintained close ties with England, and one of the indicators of this is the largest investments from the UK to the Azerbaijani economy. The United Kingdom is part of the Anglo-Saxon world, which includes America, and these nations have been close allies for at least a century. Thus, strong relations with the UK may serve as a key to fruitful collaboration with the Trump administration. Moreover, the previous administration of Trump was not as pro-Armenian as the Biden administration is, promising a more favourable landscape for Azerbaijan's relations with the new American government and opening significant prospects for economic projects.

In 1945, the Yalta Conferenc was held, featuring the leaders of the three powers that defeated Hitler: Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin. A similar conference will eventually take place again, likely involving Trump, Xi Jinping, Starmer, and Putin. The genius businessman Donald Trump will need to arrive at this gathering holding strong cards to negotiate on favourable terms. A multipolar world will emerge to replace the unipolar one, and the preferred scenario for America is a compliant Europe, a weakened Russia, and an isolated China.

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