(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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Armenia is actively engaging in provocations against Azerbaijan
under the influence of the West. This is not about the onset of a
new war; rather, it involves deliberate short-term provocations in
the border areas with Azerbaijan. The Armenian authorities clearly
lack the capability to wage a war or secure any meaningful
victories. The West, especially France, is working to mislead
Yerevan into believing otherwise. Paris is consistently exhibiting
provocative actions in the South Caucasus region, and this
behaviour cannot be ignored.
For instance, Armenia's deepening military cooperation with
France, highlighted by the recent
signing of a 2025 defence program , exposes a critical flaw in
Yerevan's foreign policy: a preference for dependency over
sovereignty. This latest agreement, touted as a step forward by
Armenian officials, lays bare a calculated alignment that not only
undermines the South Caucasus peace agenda but also risks
entrenching Armenia in a dangerous cycle of geopolitical
manipulation and militaristic ambitions.
The strategic consultations at Armenia's Ministry of Defense
mark more than routine diplomacy. They reflect a conscious effort
by Paris to solidify its influence in a region where it has
consistently played a disruptive role. France, a vocal opponent of
Azerbaijan, has made no secret of its support for Yerevan, often
undercutting initiatives aimed at resolving lingering conflicts. By
enabling Armenia with military resources and strategic backing,
France is fueling revanchist sentiment that runs counter to the
peace narrative being championed by Baku.
Armenia's military elites, led by General Edward Asryan, may
view this partnership as a safeguard, but in reality, it ties
Yerevan's security agenda to French geopolitical interests. This
dependency undermines Armenia's autonomy, effectively turning the
country into a proxy for Paris's broader ambitions. The question
for Armenia is stark: will its leaders choose sovereignty, or will
they persist in aligning with external powers at the expense of
national stability?
Internal barriers to peace
Meanwhile, Armenia's internal politics reveal a deeper malaise.
Former Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan's cynical view of the
peace process with Azerbaijan underscores a persistent
unwillingness among Armenian elites to engage in genuine
reconciliation. Ayvazyan's claims that Azerbaijan is "introducing
obstacles" into negotiations are a smokescreen for Armenia's own
failure to address fundamental impediments to peace-chief among
them, its Constitution.
Armenia's legal framework enshrines territorial ambitions that
directly conflict with Azerbaijan's sovereignty. Without amending
these constitutional provisions, the prospect of enduring peace
remains a pipe dream. Ayvazyan's pessimism is emblematic of an
entrenched mindset that prioritizes grievance over resolution,
perpetuating a cycle of mistrust and hostility-Armenia's pivot
toward militarization, emboldened by French support, risks
reigniting tensions in the South Caucasus. To achieve lasting
peace, amending the Armenian Constitution is essential. There are
two significant obstacles obstructing peace between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, and one of these is firmly embedded in the Constitution
itself. Armenia still has not eliminated territorial claims against
Azerbaijan from its constitution. Nikol Pashinyan keeps presenting
new justifications and hesitates to make this essential move, which
is a significant barrier to peace. Incredibly, the former Foreign
Minister of Armenia believes the opposite, asserting that a peace
treaty would be ineffective. This viewpoint is unsurprising,
considering his track record of failed policies in this area during
his tenure. Such thinking is misguided and counterproductive to the
goal of peace.
For Armenia, the path forward is clear but challenging. The
nation must break free from the toxic influences of external powers
like France and recalibrate its policies toward genuine peace with
Azerbaijan. This requires courage: revising constitutional
barriers, abandoning revanchism, and pursuing diplomacy over
dependency.
Armenia is currently caught in a precarious balancing act
between Russia and the West, aiming to appease both sides. This
strategy is backfiring: both parties are growing increasingly
frustrated and are intensifying their pressure on Yerevan. The
frequent visits from European officials, and vice-versa, coupled
with pointed criticisms from Russian officials regarding Armenia's
policies, clearly demonstrate that both sides are intent on
asserting their influence over Yerevan and increasing the country's
dependency. The Armenian government must adopt a proactive approach
and pursue regional cooperation. Normalizing relations with
Azerbaijan is not just a prerequisite; it is the critical first
step to securing Armenia's independence and stability in the
region. The South Caucasus does not need more destabilizing
alliances or ideological posturing; it needs a commitment to peace.
The onus is on Yerevan to decide whether it will continue to be a
pawn in someone else's game or finally assert its sovereignty and
work toward a stable and prosperous future.
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