Trump 2.0 Could Drive China-Japan Closer Together

11/14/2024 12:05:55 AM

(MENAFN- Asia Times) Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election on November 6, sealing a historic and improbable return to the White House. His reelection has triggered speculation as to the state of world affairs once he assumes office in January.

The US-China relationship is high on any list of subtopics. Trump waged a trade war against China during his first term as president and has now promised higher tariffs on Chinese goods – of 60% or more – at a time when China's Economy is struggling.

But much less discussed is the potential effect of Trump's policies on relationships between other countries. In the absence of US trade and security guarantees during Trump's first term, regional rivals China and Japan entered a detente, a period of thawing relations. With Trump's second term on the horizon, will relations between China and Japan thaw once again?

The Chinese-Japanese relationship is an example of “hot economics, cold politics .” This term, which originated in the early 2000s to describe the distinctive relationship between these two countries, still holds true to today.

Over the next decade, China and Japan have agreed to cooperate on an estimated $26 trillion worth of regional infrastructure projects. And, in 2021, trade between China and Japan edged above US$372 billion . Japan now serves as China's second-largest trade partner, behind only the US, with China serving as the largest trading partner of Japan.

Yet political animosity is a source of continuing tension. Japan's invasion of China during the Second World War, in which over 20 million Chinese people died, has left an enduring legacy . Anti-Japanese sentiment is a core characteristic of contemporary Chinese nationalism, which routinely calls for vigilance against what it considers to be an inherently militaristic Japanese culture.

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