(MENAFN- Asia Times)
In hindsight, wars often look as if they were inevitable. Tensions were building up. National ambitions were clashing. Mutual fears and suspicions were growing. Historical grievances were simmering.
Yet in truth, they are never inevitable. They depend on decisions made by men – leaders ordering wars have almost always been men – who could have chosen to act differently.
I have been thinking about this a lot over the past year because I have been researching and writing a new book about the risk of a war breaking out between China and the United States.
The title of the English book, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Routledge, is“Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict over Taiwan.” But the title of the translated (and expanded) Japanese version that has also just been translated by Fusosha, is“How to Stop World War Three“, which you might think is a somewhat dramatic title.
Would a war between the US and China really become counted as“World War III”? And could it be stopped?
The answer to the first is obvious: this would be the first war in history between two nuclear-armed superpowers, and it would be a war that would determine the nature of global leadership for decades to come.
With stakes so high, we have to expect that such a conflict would widen to include other countries, including Japan, and, sadly, that it would escalate to include the use of nuclear weapons.
The answer to the second question is, however, more reassuring and takes us back to the question of inevitability. If such a war were to start, it would be the result either of
a deliberate calculation made by one side about the prospects of prevailing, for example over an invasion of Taiwan; or
an impulsive response to an accident or incident, for example over a collision in the South China Sea, as a result of which both sides failed to understand each other's actions or intentions.
In either case, the issue is one chiefly of psychology and of the decisions made by political and military leaders. If such a catastrophic war is to be stopped from happening, what has to be focused on is that psychology – and how to alter the decisions leaders make in order to preserve peace and avoid war.
This is one of the most important lessons to be learned from the war that Russia launched against Ukraine, first by seizing the Ukrainian province of Crimea in 2014 and then by making a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
MENAFN19082024000159011032ID1108573791
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.