Luna-25 Crash-Lands Russia-China Space Ambitions

“Russia launched this lunar exploration project while fighting against Ukraine and having a standoff with NATO. It wanted to demonstrate its ability to operate normally and expand continuously while making a gesture that shows it wants to lead in lunar exploration,” Hu said.“Such an ambition has been hit by the recent setback of Luna-25.”

Hu said Russia inherited rich defense resources from the Soviet Union but its economy remains small. He said the Luna-25's crash should serve as a reminder to China to keep strengthening its economy, develop high technology and boost its defense power. He said China cannot show any major weakness, as it has already been labeled by Washington as its top rival.

Citing an initial investigation, Yury Borisov, head of Russian space agency Roscosmos and also former Russian deputy prime minister, said that when Luna-25 tried to enter the pre-landing orbit its engine's propulsive nudge operated for 127 seconds instead of the planned 84 seconds. He said the more-than-required impulse caused the spacecraft to crash into the moon.

Before landing on the moon, a spacecraft has to decelerate to enter the pre-landing orbit, which is in an ellipse shape with a low point of 18 kilometers and a high point of 100 kilometers above the moon's surface.

As the moon has light gravitational pull and no atmosphere, the deceleration force must be calculated very accurately. Excessive force will make the spacecraft fall below the low point of 18 kilometers and crash. Insufficient force will make the spacecraft miss the orbit.

Brian Harvey, a space writer, said the Luna-25 engine fired for 50% longer than planned, making the spacecraft's low point far below the moon's surface (mi15 kilometers), which means a crash.

Roscosmos is investigating whether the accident was caused by hardware problems or a miscalculation of the deceleration force.

Liu Xia, a Chinese space columnist, notes in an article that many spacecraft have failed in landing on the moon in recent decades as the mission is challenging. Even if a lander safely enters the pre-landing orbit, Liu says, any minor problem in the engine, fuel supply, sensors, software or telecommunication equipment can result in a hard landing.

Back in 1966, the Soviet Union's Luna-9 had already achieved a soft landing on the moon. In 1976, Luna-24 successfully brought 170 grams of moon samples back to Earth.

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Luna-25 was Russia's first lunar project. In April 2022, as a response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the European Space Agency ended its cooperation with Russia on Luna-25 and succeeding missions. Russia planned to launch the Luna-26, Luna-27 and Luna-28 in 2027, 2028 and 2030, respectively.

On Monday, Borisov told the Russia-24 state TV station that Russia will remain committed to lunar exploration despite the Luna-25's crash as the race for the moon's natural resources has already begun. He said Russia will still explore the possibility of a joint Russia-China crewed mission and even the establishment of a lunar base.

“This is not just about the prestige of the country and the achievement of some geopolitical goals,” he said.“This is about ensuring defensive capabilities and achieving technological sovereignty.”

China's Chang'e 5 spacecraft, carried by the Long March 5 rocket, landed on the moon on December 1, 2020 and delivered 1.73 kilograms of moon samples back to Earth that same month. In 2025, Chang'e 6 will be sent to the moon's permanent dark side south pole, with the aim of bringing back about 2 kilograms of rock samples to Earth.

In 2026, Chang'e 7 will carry a flying vehicle and a molecule analyzer in search of ice, which if found could potentially be transformed into hydrogen and oxygen for agricultural use and power generation. In 2028, Chang'e 8 plans to take a 3D printer there to build a space station that can accommodate up to four people.

A Yunnan-based writer notes in an article published in April that China and Russia will jointly build a space station on the moon and welcome all countries to contribute to the lunar effort. He says China has already invited Venezuela and will invite Brazil to participate.

He says thewill be excluded from Beijing's invitations as long as it keeps in effect the Wolf Amendment, which was passed by theCongress in 2011 to ban all collaboration between Chinese agencies and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

On August 11, Nadministrator Bill Nelson warned that China might occupy the lunar south pole if its astronauts got there first, replicating the Chinese occupation of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

NASA's Artemis 3, the first crewed lunar landing mission since Apollo 17 in December 1972, is set to be launched in December 2025.

read: new blast plan for china's 2030 manned moonshot

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