(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Hedge funds are recalibrating their positions in the oil market as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East introduce new uncertainties. The recent escalation of conflicts, particularly involving Israel and Iran, has prompted a reassessment of oil price trajectories among major financial players.
In October 2024, oil futures and options trading reached unprecedented levels. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a total of 68.44 million barrels traded, surpassing the previous record set in March 2020. Similarly, the CME Group noted a single-day volume record for weekly crude oil options on October 18, with 58,132 contracts exchanged. This surge in trading activity reflects heightened concerns over potential disruptions to oil infrastructure and anticipated price volatility due to the ongoing Middle East conflicts.
Despite the geopolitical turmoil, oil prices have exhibited volatility. Following initial spikes due to fears of supply disruptions, Brent crude futures experienced a decline of approximately $4 per barrel, fluctuating between $70 and $81 throughout October. This price movement underscores the market's complex response to geopolitical events and underlying supply-demand dynamics.
Market analysts have observed that while geopolitical conflicts pose upward risks to oil prices, traders are also contending with weak fundamentals projected for 2025. Factors such as potential oversupply, especially if OPEC+ decides to increase production, contribute to a bearish outlook. In response, the market has seen a notable 38% year-on-year increase in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil monthly options traded on the CME, indicating a strategic shift towards options for risk management.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have played a pivotal role in influencing market sentiment. In October, OPEC+ decided to delay its planned December output increase by one month to counteract weak demand and rising supply pressures. This decision reflects the group's cautious approach in navigating the delicate balance between supporting prices and maintaining market share.
See also Abu Dhabi's Tourism Sector Expands Workforce Amid Visitor Influx
Hedge funds' strategies have evolved in tandem with these developments. In September 2024, money managers reduced their combined net-long positions on Brent and WTI by 99,889 lots, bringing the total to 139,242 lots-the lowest level recorded since March 2011. This significant reduction in bullish bets indicates a cautious stance amid concerns of growing supply and weakening demand.
However, the landscape shifted in October as geopolitical tensions escalated. The increased risk of a region-wide Middle East war led to a 3% rise in oil prices, with Brent surpassing $80 per barrel for the first time since August. This price movement was likely driven by money managers closing bearish bets due to the heightened risk of disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Also published on Medium .
Notice an issue?
Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com . We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
ADVERTISEMENT
MENAFN21012025000152002308ID1109112871
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.