No Sure Or Easy Path To Peace In Post-War Syria
Date
12/25/2024 7:05:10 AM
(MENAFN- Asia Times)
Images emerging from Syria over the past week have shown jubilation on the streets, as millions celebrate the end of 24 years of repression under Bashar al-Assad.
It is rare for rebels to manage to tip the scales in their favor and win a war outright after such a long and protracted stalemate. But the obvious next question is: what comes next? Looking at the handful of similar examples, history suggests that new forms of violence could continue to threaten Syria's Political future.
In Libya, an umbrella coalition of rebel forces known as the National Transition Council defeated Muammar Gaddafi's government in 2011. Meanwhile, in South Sudan, victory against Omar al-Bashir came in the form of a successful referendum on independence that same year.
Looking further back, in Idi Amin's Uganda, an alliance was brokered by neighboring Tanzania between two rival rebellions in 1979. Their joint military campaign ended in Amin's defeat soon after.
The immediate aftermath of rebel victory in each of these cases points to one common lesson. Where a fragmented coalition of armed groups finds itself in a political vacuum, more violence – not less – is probably on the horizon.
Fragile and shifting coalitions
The injustices of repressive regimes often motivate rebellion. They can also provide a common enemy that, especially when sensing a window of opportunity, makes it possible for rival armed groups to put aside their differences and work together towards a common cause.
Subsequently, however, transition periods generate uncertainty over political futures. This can make it difficult for former allies to remain united.
Many Libyan militias allied behind the National Transition Council during its uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. But they soon became violent rivals in competition over political influence in the transitional government being formed in Tripoli.
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