Crumbling Iran Axis Of Resistance: Danger Sign For Nicolas Maduro

The driving force behind their bromance has been an unwavering commitment to a shared ideology – that of challenging what they describe as US imperialism. It is not just a pragmatic alignment of interests but a fundamental, spiritual bond that reverberates throughout both governments' foreign policies.

When Chávez died in 2013, Iran's then-President Mahmud Ahmadinejad caused a storm by proclaiming that Chavez would return to establish peace and justice in the world, alongside Jesus Christ and the Hidden Imam. In return, when the hardline Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash earlier this year, Maduro paid tribute to an“excellent human being” and“unconditional friend of our country.”

Iran has provided extensive military support to help Caracas shore up its position and project power in the region – arming it with drones, missiles and other equipment that Venezuela came very close to deploying when it staked a claim over the territory of Guyana this year.

Iran also provides know-how on counterintelligence and torture to the Maduro counterintelligence agency DGCIM and other forces in charge of repression.

To repay that favor, Venezuela has made its territory available to Iranian agents plotting assassinations of US officials in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani. The IRGC has been deeply embedded in the Venezuelan security services for many years now, and has been sharing its expertise in regime survival to great effect.

The relationship has been productive and mutually reinforcing, but the events of the last few weeks have shaken its foundations.

Iran's power and influence have relied on the threat of retaliation against Israel and its allies via an extensive network of proxy forces in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. But this network is collapsing faster than almost anyone thought possible, and Tehran finds itself in an incredibly difficult position with no good options to reassert itself.

Israel may yet face setbacks now that an uncertain ground operation has been launched and it is facing war on several fronts, but either way the Iranian Axis has proven to be extremely vulnerable.

This is a problem for Maduro because if the G2 becomes the G1, he will lose the one thing that has thus far protected him and kept him in power – the confidence of his inner circle.

The Venezuelan regime does not owe its longevity to popular support – polls show the people in Venezuela overwhelmingly resent Maduro and the misery he has inflicted on them.

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The regime has survived because an extremely small group of well-placed military“elites” has benefited from Maduro's patronage. They see their interests as best served by his continuance in office. But history tells us that enablers of this kind will drop their patron the moment they sense he no longer has a reliable path to preserving their position.

That path is clear for as long as Venezuela can count itself among a limited brotherhood of authoritarian states jointly asserting their right to cling to power in the face of mass opposition. But in a world in which even Iran's theocratic government – seemingly far more resilient and powerful than the regime in Caracas – cannot protect its vital interests, where does that leave the relatively hapless Maduro administration?

There can be no doubt that some loyalists in the Miraflores Palace will be looking at each other this week and wondering whether the time has come to take preventative action. That should be a grave cause for concern if your name is Nicolás Maduro.

The author is the founder of YaCasiVenezuela, a movement supporting freedom, justice and democracy in Venezuela.

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