(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The way AAP, BJP and the congress have been trying to woo the electorates living in Delhi's slums, unauthorized colonies, and less developed areas, it is increasingly becoming clear that the key to winning the legislative elections lies with them. Over 50 per cent of the voters live in these areas, and majority of them have been behaving as collective support base of the AAP since 2013 Vidhan Sabha elections.
In 2012, the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) had informed the Supreme Court of India the around 49 per cent of the Delhi's population were living in slums and unauthorized colonies. The population has increased sharply in such areas in the last 12 years. The areas that MCD had mentioned are spread across Delhi affecting the election outcome of almost all 70 constituencies of the state. No wonder the all the three major parties in the fray for February 5 Vidhan Sabha election are focusing on these areas and offering freebies to them.
BJP has promised to provide permanent homes to those living in Delhi slums. Union Minister of Home Amit Shah held a meeting last week on Saturday with heads of slums in Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium and tried to convince them that the party would take care of their well being if it will come to power.
BJP has been organizing political events in such areas and promising that the residents will be given 300 units for power free. It will bring more development in their areas and more sanitation facilities will be installed to make them clean. However, there is a problem with the BJP. People in these areas do not generally believe them since BJP has been offering free homes to them but also clearing land from the slum dwellers in many areas of the city which make them suspect. AAP leaders are exploiting this against the BJP.
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Never the less, BJP is hoping to increase its support base from about 10-15 per cent to 25 per cent, which they believe would make them significant number of seats and would enable them to form government in Delhi. Their hope lies in Congress factor, the party which is targeting its own ally in INDIA bloc. However, they may prove wrong since Congress is still far behind in such areas with little support base.
BJP's vote share in Delhi elections has been hovering between 32-38 per cent in the last decade. If we take the mean, its support base is somewhere around 35-36 per cent. To win Delhi election and to wrest power from AAP, it would need to increase its support to at least 45 per cent, which does not seem possible as of now. Slum dwellers and electorates of the underdeveloped areas do not seem to be influenced more by the BJP's promises. To win significant number of seats, it would need to bag over 42 per cent of votes.
Congress has started all out attack on AAP and its supremo Arvind Kejriwal in the hope of recovering its lost ground. Apart from promising all sort of things, Rahul Gandhi has promised caste census in Delhi also. It shows the lack of understanding of Congress about the voters of Delhi, especially of impoverished less developed slums and unauthorized areas, who don't vote on caste lines in Delhi as in other states. Here, people living in these areas have been behaving on different lines based on the support given to them for their survival making their lives a little easier. They want free electricity, water, education, and healthcare facilities, which are being provided by AAP, and the party is promising to give them even more facilities if they come to power.
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Congress's vote share in Delhi was only 4.26 per cent in 2020 assembly elections. Congress is trying its best to discredit Arvind Kejriwal on all fronts. Rahul Gandhi has attacked Kejriwal by comparing him with Narendra Modi and alleged supporting the big corporates and indulged in corruption. Nevertheless, electorate living in impoverished areas do not seem impressed. Though Congress is aiming to increase its vote share from less than 5 per cent to 15 per cent, it would be an uphill task for the party. Moreover, if the Congress is not able to dent in AAP's vote share, a great frustration would come to grip them, and also the BJP, which is hoping to increase their number of seats only on this possibility.
AAP seems to be still a favourite among electorate living in impoverished, slum, and unauthorized areas of the city. Moreover, Samajwadi Party, Shiv Sena (UBT), National Conference and other INDIA allies are also supporting AAP. Kejriwal's vote bank seems to be intact. (IPA Service )
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