Reopening To Syria: Conditional Reengagement And Persistent Security Challenges

(MENAFN- Jordan Times) The gradual international engagement with Syria is taking shape on multiple levels and through various channels, coinciding with notable steps taken by the new Syrian administration to open up both regionally and internationally. A visit from European Union representatives, including the foreign ministers of Germany and France, marked a significant milestone in this process of re-engagement. However, the most critical development is the Syrian administration's overtures toward Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia.

The Syrian visit to Saudi Arabia, involving the foreign minister, defence minister, and intelligence chief, sends a clear signal of the administration's intent to build robust relations with Arab countries, emphasizing security as a cornerstone for establishing trust. These moves reflect a new approach aimed at reintegrating Syria into the Arab fold, steering away from the traditional policies that characterized the previous regime's close ties with Iran.

Nevertheless, this shift faces significant challenges. There remains apprehension that the new Syrian administration might repeat past mistakes by allowing Turkey to replace Iran as a dominant regional influencer in Syria, thus recreating patterns of dependency in different forms.

Rebuilding relations with Arab nations appears less complex than the broader task of re-engagement on the international stage, which remains fraught with challenges. From the European and American perspective, expectations are clear: concrete guarantees and actionable steps on the ground. This includes increasing pressure on the presence of Russian forces in Syria, as German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock explicitly stated, "The time has come for Russian bases to leave Syria." On the Arab front, distancing itself from Iran, albeit without overt declarations, will likely remain a key prerequisite for sustainable and meaningful Arab engagement.

Internally, Syria's greatest test lies within. The Syrian administration must translate its rhetoric into tangible actions on the ground. While achieving universal satisfaction is unattainable, broad-based agreements in the initial phase will serve as benchmarks for the success of the new political framework. Security challenges are equally critical, particularly in regaining control over Syria's fragmented geography. Organized crime networks, entrenched over years of conflict, will not easily dissipate and could be revived by new actors. The resurgence of terrorist organizations could also exploit Syria as a platform to reestablish their presence and expand into neighboring countries, challenging traditional borders and reshaping regional dynamics in an already unpredictable environment.

On the Arab level, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated swift action toward Damascus, aiming to pre-empt any vacuum in Syria while preventing other regional powers from filling that void. This Saudi initiative may encourage broader Arab openness toward Syria, albeit cautiously and incrementally, as mutual trust remains a significant hurdle.

From a Jordanian perspective, proactive engagement is essential considering the region's accelerating events. Jordan must manage potential political and security repercussions in the coming weeks, including the movements of terrorist groups, the resurgence of organized crime, Israel's readiness to act on perceived threats, Iran's intent to maintain its influence, and Hezbollah's recalibration following Israel's efforts to confine it to a domestic Lebanese role. These developments necessitate a pre-emptive strategy that balances the need for stability in Syria with preparedness for potential security challenges that could reverberate across the region.

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