(MENAFN- Asia Times)
The fall of President Bashar Assad will not only affect the 24 million Syrians who lived – and largely suffered – under his brutal rule. Over the border in Lebanon, the impact will be felt, too.
The collapse of Assad's government provides another blow to its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, which was already reeling from an Israel conflict that weakened its capabilities and decimated its leadership. But many others in Lebanon will be rejoicing , not least the 1.5 million refugees who fled Syria to escape Assad and a 13-year civil war.
As an expert on Lebanese history and culture , I believe the ripple effects from Syria are to be expected. The two countries' modern histories are intertwined, and throughout its 54-year rule, the Assad family has intervened in Lebanon many times – mostly to the detriment of its people, its economy and its stability.
Hezbollah and Assad: A reciprocal relationship
Since its formation in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has benefited from strong support from the Syrian regime. There were moments of tension between the two, for sure – notably in the midst of the Lebanese civil war. But overall, Hezbollah has been able to rely on Syria for arms , training and easy land access to Iran .
And this arrangement was reciprocal. When Assad's rule was challenged in 2011 and the country descended into civil war, Hezbollah fighters crossed into Syria to bolster government troops.
But having grown to become the most powerful paramilitary entity in Lebanon, Hezbollah has seen its fortunes suffer of late. The recent war with Israel severely weakened the group and forced it into accepting a ceasefire deal that includes a pathway toward disarmament.
Furthermore, Lebanese support for Hezbollah has shifted dramatically, with open calls for the group to cease its paramilitary activities.
The group's war with Israel cost the lives of about 3,700 people in Lebanon , and about 1.2 million Lebanese – about one-fifth of the population – were internally displaced from their homes. Meanwhile, the economic loss for Lebanon is estimated in the billions of dollars.
Iran, Assad and Hezbollah triangle
It is no coincidence that the recent rebel advance that led to Assad's ouster began the same day the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was signed . Hezbollah forces were depleted, and many of their fighters were pulled out of Syria to reinforce Lebanon's southern border .
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