Color Revolutions 2.0? West's High-Stakes Game In Georgia's Elections

(MENAFN- AzerNews) Akbar Novruz Read more

As Georgia approaches its most consequential parliamentary elections, the stakes go higher. What happens in the coming few days could reshape not only the country's future but also the delicate geopolitical balance across the South Caucasus. Western capitals are watching closely, deploying familiar strategies reminiscent of past color revolutions, while regional powers brace for potential unrest and shifts in power. It's of course not that surprising to say that the situation in the country has always been one of the hot topics in the European Union.

Georgia constitutionally enshrined its goal of joining the EU and NATO after the 2003 Rose Revolution - a pro-democracy revolution that sparked Georgia's pro-Western trajectory. The country came under the Union's main focus of interest in 2009 following the outbreak of the South Ossetia crisis, since which official Tbilisi has been trying as hard as possible to cement its full membership. After some ups and downs, holdbacks, etc., Georgia has successfully managed to begin formally preparing for EU membership in 2021. This idea saw its record high in April of 2023 when a nationwide poll by the International Republican Institute found that 89% of Georgians support this. However, everything started to fall apart quickly, as the government approved the foreign agent law in May 2024, which sparked weeks of mass protests. The EU swiftly responded by freezing financial aid and visa liberalization, signaling growing frustrations with the Georgian government ahead of the election.

How to assess the EU's actions?: Unfolding the playbook of Western intervention

It would be naïve to overlook the hallmarks of Western influence playing out in Georgia. The script follows a familiar trajectory-unpopular legislation sparks mass mobilization, Western institutions lend implicit support, and elections become the battleground for competing narratives. In a scenario hauntingly similar to Ukraine's Maidan revolution, Western powers appear poised to exploit any sign of instability to further their agenda. Georgia risks becoming the next proxy battlefield, with promises of EU and NATO integration dangling just out of reach. Which has been proven repeatedly.

President Salome Zourabichvili has already aligned herself with opposition forces, hinting at what's to come. At the heart of Tbilisi, she participated in the“European March” on October 20 and announced plans to establish an election coordination center at the Orbeliani Palace. If the opposition wins, Zourabichvili celebrates victory, and new elections are announced, in which Georgian Dream has no chance of entering parliament. The country joins the sanctions against Russia and adopts a sharply anti-Russian policy. After this, Georgia will be quickly accepted into the EU and NATO, at least that's how the West promises or opposition supporters hope. But if they lose, things could turn explosive. Street protests might escalate into confrontations aimed at government buildings-a scenario the West could tacitly endorse to force new elections.

What's at stake for the region?

By the way, for information, it's important to add, that against the backdrop of protests and confrontation in Tbilisi, certain regions may declare their recognition and demand external assistance. Without any doubt, possible outcomes of the election vary in many directions, but one in the above briefly explains what to expect. One of the high stakes of the election extends far beyond Georgia's borders. With the South Caucasus becoming a focal point for global powers, after the Ukraine War, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Georgia have formed a resilient tripartite cooperation model based on national interests and shared economic projects. However, the disruption of Georgia's political equilibrium-whether through foreign influence or internal strife-could fracture this cooperation and shift the regional balance of power.

Azerbaijan and Türkiye must and probably will be closely monitoring the election's outcome. If Georgia succumbs to Western pressure and veers into aggressive anti-Russian policies, it risks following Ukraine's trajectory-entangled in conflict with no guarantees of NATO or EU membership. In this context, the strategic imperative for Azerbaijan and Türkiye is clear: maintain close ties with whichever government emerges and prevent Georgia from becoming a pawn in a larger geopolitical chess game.

Overall, the outcome of Georgia's election is uncertain, but the risks are clear. If the opposition wins, it could rapidly align with the West, triggering drastic shifts in foreign policy. Tbilisi stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the parliamentary elections will determine not only its domestic political future but also the extent to which it remains aligned with its regional partners or becomes embroiled in Western-led geopolitical schemes. If Georgian Dream clings to power, the opposition may refuse to recognize the results, unleashing a wave of unrest. Either scenario presents profound challenges-not only for Georgia but for the entire region.

The question is no longer just about who wins the election but whether Georgia can avoid becoming another victim of geopolitical maneuvering. As Western powers pull the strings and regional actors brace for impact, one thing is certain: the future of Georgia-and the stability of the South Caucasus-hangs in precarious balance.

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