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In recent trading sessions, the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level since mid-September at the 1.3070 support level after reports indicated that the US economy added 254,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations of a reading of 147,000 jobs. The report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was strong across the board, with August's report showing a significant improvement from 142,000 jobs to 159,000 jobs. Also, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.
Currently, financial markets are having their doubts as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' expectations gauge shows that investors now see only a 5% chance of a 50-basis point cut in November. Overall, softening expectations for cuts, in turn, boosts US bond yields and the dollar.
The US jobs data comes a day after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the central bank could now accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. We noted that his shift came despite the scarcity of data supporting it. Instead, it seemed as if the governor saw the Federal Reserve's 50-basis point cut in September and the recent hint from the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the second time in October as providing the necessary cover to accelerate interest rate cuts. Overall, this US data and subsequent market developments expose the cover of Bank of England Governor Bailey will the Bank of England do next?
The Bank of England will have to continue raising interest rates at a quarterly pace, even if its governor wants to speed up the process. A day after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signalled that he wants to speed up the pace of the central bank's rate cuts, the US economy has reacted strongly. The US economy added 254,000 nonfarm jobs in September, beating expectations of 147,000, and dashing expectations of another 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
This 50-basis point cut is considered important for the Bank of England and other global central banks that are looking for cover from the Federal Reserve to cut their own interest rates. Commenting on this, Karl Schamotta, chief market analyst at Corpay, said: "The 'no landing' scenario for the United States has suddenly become more likely, suggesting that expectations of aggressive monetary easing in most major economies should be scaled back."
The US jobs data comes a day after Bailey signalled that the bank could step up the pace of rate cuts, saying the bank could be more“active” on the matter. The shift came despite a lack of fresh economic data that would prompt such a comment. Instead, it appeared that the governor saw the Fed's 50 basis point cut in September and the recent signal from the European Central Bank that it would accelerate cuts as providing cover for a change of tactic.
Earlier on Friday, the Bank of England's chief economist said he thought it was prudent for the bank to proceed with caution. Bell said he remained“concerned about the possibility of structural changes that support more sustained inflationary pressures” in the UK economy. Speaking to accountants at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, Bell said his latest economic modelling told him there were“reasons for caution in assessing the dissipation of persistent inflation”. He added,“further cuts in bank interest rates remain possible if the economic and inflationary outlook evolves broadly as expected”, but that“it will be important to guard against the risk of interest rates being cut either too much or too quickly”. he concluded,“For me, the need for such caution suggests a gradual withdrawal of the constraints on monetary policy,”
Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the performance on the daily chart, there is a real break in the direction of the GBP/USD price and the bearish shift will be strengthened if prices move towards the support levels of 1.3090 and 1.2980 respectively. Technically, breaking the psychological support of 1.30 is possible if the US inflation figures this week come stronger than all expectations, as happened with the US jobs figures last week. Thus, the recent performance confirms the strength of our recommendations to sell the GBP/USD from every upward level. Currently, the closest resistance levels are 1.3230 and 1.3300 respectively.
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