Kursk Has Put Putin On The Back Foot For Now

But in moving the point of attack to a relatively unguarded stretch of border, Ukraine has managed to negate these advantages and set the conditions for an operational breakthrough. In Kursk, the Ukrainians are back on the offensive and the mechanized brigades are rolling again, causing chaos and confusion as they get behind the Russian lines and fan out.

It has been an impressive move. On top of concentrating elements of six brigades, many with western tanks and armored fighting vehicles, without being attacked, they have used deep reconnaissance groups to cause chaos and confusion ahead of the main thrusts.

Crucially, they have also managed to establish and maintain an air defense and electronic warfare“bubble” over their advancing forces. The air defense bubble makes it much more difficult for Russian fast jets and helicopters to operate near Ukrainian forces while electronic warfare jams the frequency spectrums needed for Russia to operate its drone-based ISR.

The Ukrainians have also adapted tactically: They have been successfully using first-person-view (FPV) drones against helicopters for the first time. Russia's attack helicopters were crucial in breaking up the 2023 summer offensive, so this move could have a major impact on Russia's ability to use helicopters near the frontlines.

The Ukrainians have also used their own fast jets in the close air support role, hitting ground targets in Russia.

The cumulative effect of this combined arms coordination is that Russian commanders arriving to relieve Kursk have spoken of how difficult it will be to dislodge the Ukrainian army quickly.

According to one “top Ukrainian official ,” the operation aims“to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilize the situation in Russia.” The unnamed official added that the attack has“greatly raised our morale, the morale of the Ukrainian army, state and society.”

The morale boost is well apparent. But with Russia actually increasing its push into Donetsk recently, it is not clear if the Kursk operation will bring any relief for Ukraine's beleaguered defenders there .

Either way, this kind of successfully executed operation doesn't just happen. It will have been carefully planned for months. And that timeline perhaps gives an indication of its ultimate strategic objective.

Months ago, Donald Trump was odds-on to become the next US president. He has stated he will stop aid to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. So perhaps the strategic aim is to seize and hold Russian territory as leverage in any future negotiations.

Significantly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has congratulated the armed forces for increasing the size of Ukraine's“exchange fund .”

There have been reports of Ukrainian troops using mechanical diggers to build trenches inside Russia , which could indicate plans to try to defend at least some of the seized territory.

Meanwhile, the Russians are doing similar things to stabilize the lines. This will be their short-term goal, followed by the attrition of Ukrainian forces and the reduction of the pocket occupied by the incursion.

But this will take time. Looking ahead, absent another Ukrainian surprise, an unlikely Russian military disaster or a political deal, the most likely course of action is that Russia's numerical advantage will begin to tell.

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Then Kiev will have a decision to make: to withdraw troops back into Ukraine or to prepare defensive lines on Russian territory further west. As a withdrawal while in contact with the enemy is notoriously tricky, this would be better done sooner rather than later.

They could try to hold what they have but this is reliant on reinforcing and sustaining the salient, and risks getting badly mauled by the Russians over time. Finally, there could potentially be some sort of quick deal solution: Ukraine withdraws in return for a Russian withdrawal from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which could provide sorely needed energy this winter, for example.

Ukraine's Kursk offensive is high risk and high stakes. So far, the operation has been successful, but its eventual outcome – rather than events a week in – will determine its wider importance.

In any case, Ukraine has shown the West it can use Western equipment and Ukrainian jets inside Russia without major escalation. It may also contribute to another round of Russian mobilization, increasing the political risk to the Kremlin.

And one thing that neither side will forget is how easy it was for Ukraine to roll over the weakly protected Russian border and embarrass Putin.

Patrick Bury is a reader in politics, languages and international studies at the Institute for Digital Security and Behaviour (IDSB), University of Bath .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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