US Full Steam Ahead With Drone-Based Carrier Warfare

The US struggles to win wars far from its territories and faces challenges from anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. In the Indo-Pacific, aerial refueling is increasingly essential for overcoming operational challenges compounded by vast distances and enhancing force projection.

The aging US aerial tanker fleet needs to increase its capacity to compete with China and Russia. It is crucial in supporting combat aircraft operating from distant airbases in the Indo-Pacific region. Aerial refueling allows combat missions to reach over 8,000 kilometers and requires fighter escorts to protect the large and vulnerable tanker aircraft.

China has developed long-range air-to-air missiles such as the PL-17 that can hit aerial tankers at standoff ranges, making it challenging for conventional aerial tankers to operate near China's coast.

Thus, small unmanned aerial tankers with stealth capabilities can operate near heavily defended airspace and from numerous civilian and military airfields.

The MQ-25 Stingray is set to take over tanker missions from the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, freeing up Super Hornet flight hours. This is part of a broader strategy to enhance the effectiveness of US airpower in the Pacific by boosting aircraft range and payload to operate in and penetrate China's A2/AD bubble.

A stealthy, unmanned aerial tanker could complement the US' upcoming airpower systems, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) 6th-generation fighter and B-21 Raider stealth bomber, by refueling them for extended missions.

Recent discussions have focused on adopting CCAs as a critical measure in upholding air superiority against advanced threats, building upon the existing strategic focus on aerial refueling capabilities.

In a February 2024 report for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Mark Gunzinger and Lawrence Stutzriem emphasize the urgent need for the US to adopt CCAs to maintain air superiority against advanced threats like China.

Gunzinger and Lawrence advocate for a mixed fleet of crewed and uncrewed aircraft, leveraging advances in autonomy and AI to operate effectively in contested environments. They highlight the potential of CCA to act as force multipliers, enhancing the lethality, survivability and capacity of air superiority operations.

They suggest that carrier-based CCAs could disrupt adversary air defenses and provide a cost-effective solution to bolster the US's air combat capabilities.

They stress the need for immediate action to integrate CCAs into the US Air Force's force design, warning that the current aging aircraft fleet is insufficient to counter the rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

However, Gunzinger and Lawrence stress that CCAs complement 5th and future 6th-generation fighters rather than replace them, underscoring the need for a balanced approach to air warfare modernization.

This push for CCAs is complemented by the US Navy's broader vision for uncrewed aircraft, which includes the service's plan to unman a substantial part of its carrier air wings.

In April 2023, The War Zone reported that the US Navy is steering its future carrier air wings to comprise 60% uncrewed aircraft, as Rear Admiral Andrew“Bucket” Loiselle revealed at a recent Sea-Air-Space conference.

This strategic move aligns with the broader NGAD program, emphasizing advanced drones and 6th-generation crewed stealth combat jets. It says that integrating the MD-5 UMCS on three carriers marks a step toward this goal, enabling control of any UAS purchased.

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The War Zone report says that the US Navy and Air Force collaborate closely to allow mutual control of their CCAs. It mentions that the MQ-25 Stingray, with its ISR capabilities, is set to improve operational flexibility by enabling smooth control transfer between assets of both military branches.

The War Zone notes that this transition reflects a strategic response to warfare's evolving nature, where longer ranges and contested spaces demand reimagining carrier strike group effectiveness.

As the US Navy moves toward a future dominated by uncrewed aircraft, China is similarly advancing its naval capabilities, as demonstrated by the launch of the world's first dedicated drone aircraft carrier.

In May 2024, Asia Times reported that China had launched the world's first dedicated drone aircraft carrier, a strategic move that could significantly alter the Indo-Pacific's naval power dynamics.

This pioneering vessel, constructed at the Jiangsu Dayang Marine shipyard on the Yangtze River, is designed to operate cost-effectively with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in potential conflict scenarios, including with the US.

The carrier's design is smaller, with a catamaran hull and a low flight deck for large fixed-wing UAVs. This new ship reflects China's strategy to simulate Western naval capabilities by constructing high-tech target barges and drone motherships.

The introduction of China's drone carrier aligns with the increasing role of drones in naval warfare, which present a cost-effective option for power projection and substantial capabilities at a fraction of the cost of conventional carriers.

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