Populism Is On The Rise And It Can Degrade Democracy

Immigration, race and religion are three issues that are often central to many populists' politics. There are also economic factors such as a poor economy, international trade, industrial robots and artificial intelligence that some experts think also contribute to the rise of populism.

This is because the growth of artificial intelligence, for example, has led to the reduction of stable jobs in sectors such as manufacturing, which once gave working-class people a pathway to social mobility.

Many pundits and scholars still question whether the economy plays a significant role in populism. This argument takes various forms, but it typically boils down to statements like this one, made by a prominent political scientist about the 2016 U.S. presidential election:“Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote .”

In other words, the 2016 presidential vote was influenced by white voters' fears about losing their dominant status in society rather than their financial struggles – at least according to this argument.

My recent research shows a different source of anxiety behind growing support for populism: people's concerns about economic insecurity are a crucial factor driving populism in Europe, North America and Latin America.

For example, Americans who lost their jobs in the manufacturing industry in the 2010s were especially likely to abandon the Democratic Party and vote for Trump in 2016.

There is evidence that people's anti-immigration attitudes are also fueled by their anxiety about their own jobs.

Research also shows that Europeans who lost their jobs or whose earnings were reduced because of competition with low-wage immigrant workers, for example, were more likely to feel threatened by globalization . They were also especially likely to embrace nationalism and vote for populist right-wing candidates throughout Western Europe.

Still, research shows that not all populist voters can be lumped under the same umbrella. Populist voters are a diverse group with various motivations and concerns.

For example, artificial intelligence threatens jobs more in the U S and in western Europe than in eastern Europe, making Americans and Western Europeans more concerned about this issue than eastern Europeans.

Race is another factor. Some white voters facing financial hardship may feel as if immigrants and people of color were responsible for taking the available jobs – and are to blame for their economic woes.

Populism is not just about conservative white men, however, despite the popular support Trump holds among many in this group . For example, Democratic politicians in the US have increasingly struggled to win the black voters.

Black voters still generally vote for Democrats . But the Democratic Party has seen about a 28 percentage point decrease in black voters between 2020 and 2024 . Most of those who left the party switched to become Republicans.

This voter realignment has been occurring since 2008 . When Trump was elected in 2016, he not only increased his party's support among the white working class by four percentage points from GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney's 2012 defeat, he also increased support among black working-class voters by the same amount . This shift suggests that the Democrats have a working-class problem and not a white working-class problem. Economic factors, rather than just racial identity, are a major factor driving voters away from the Democratic Party.

Many media outlets tend to focus on core populist voters, who are masters of causing outrage with what one populism scholar calls“bad manners .” In this context, that means using inflammatory language or making politically incorrect statements, among other tactics, to draw attention to their cause.

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The most successful populist political movements in places such as Italy and Poland, however, have grown by appealing to voters concerned with bread-and-butter issues. They combine the core group of populist voters, who are motivated by culture and racism, and an outer group of voters who are not primarily motivated by these issues.

Finally, voters' support for populist leaders also depends on how nonpopulist, mainstream politicians appeal to them. Inclusive socioeconomic policies, such as expanding unemployment insurance , for example, can help stave off a populist surge.

The way ahead

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to the challenge of populism. For example, job guarantee programs help provide stable work, reducing the economic insecurity that often fuels populist sentiment.

In an economy characterized by gig work and people frequently moving from one job to another, portable benefits that workers carry from job to job – giving them continuous access to health care, retirement savings and other benefits – may help alleviate the anxieties that drive people to populism.

Boosting affordable housing and controlling rents can also promote more stable living conditions.

I think countering right-wing populism demands a concerted effort to tackle the economic insecurity that fuels this global phenomenon. The path forward may be challenging, but the alternative, a world where democracy is eroded and societies are polarized, is even more frightening.

Gábor Scheiring is a professor of comparative politics at Georgetown University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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