La Nina Conditions Favourable, May Form In June-August, Says US Weather Agency

(MENAFN- Live Mint) "New Delhi: El Niño, which began in June 2023, resulting in insufficient rainfall in India, and leading to water scarcity in some regions, besides droughts and prolonged dry periods across Asia is likely to transition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral next month and the cooler phase, or La Niña, as early as in June-August or by July-September, said the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US oscillation between El Nino and La Nina is not only important for farmers in India, but globally. Additionally, this assumes significance as it brings above normal rainfall, causing a flood-like situation during the four-month monsoon season that begins in June.\"A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance),\" NOAA said Niño and La NiñaEl Niño, Spanish for \"little boy,\" is a climatic pattern marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon typically occurs every 2-7 years, and can last for 9-12 months, influencing global weather patterns Niña, meaning“little girl\", is characterised by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same regions. It occurs every 3-5 years, and can occasionally happen in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favouring La Niña.\"We've seen a quick switch from El Nino to La Nina several times before in our 1950-present record, especially after a strong El Nino. This tendency is one source of confidence in the prediction that La Nina will develop later this year,” the US weather agency said Read: El Nino ends, La Nina expected to bring relief: Australia's Met departmentDuring April 2024, below-average equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) emerged in small regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, above-average SSTs prevailed across the rest of the equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Niño index values remained between +0.5°C and +0.8°C in all regions, except for Niño-3 which was +0.3°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures held steady during the month (area-averaged index), with negative anomalies extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds were near average. Convection was near average overall across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indonesia. This showed that El Niño was weakening into ENSO-neutral, it added forecastAs part of the first phase of the southwest monsoon forecast, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday that it anticipates above-average rainfall during the latter half of the June-September monsoon season, with El Niño expected to transition to neutral, and La Niña conditions likely to set in by August-September's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) last month also said that the El Niño returned to neutral, and La Niña is expected to return by spring World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had earlier said that El Nino had peaked in December but is expected to cause above-normal temperatures across most land regions until May, resulting in reduced rainfall often leading to drought, especially the east and southern regions, have been bearing the brunt of heatwaves for more than a fortnight. IMD last week said that the heatwaves were about to end by the end of the week, except in Kerala and west Rajasthan in the June-September monsoon season drive the bulk of India's $3-trillion economy. It accounts for nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall, which plays a crucial role in agriculture, replenishes reservoirs and aquifers, and helps meet power demand half of India's arable land is rain-fed and agriculture remains among the biggest employment generators Nino adversely affected crop yields, decreasing food grain production by 1.4% for the 2023-24 (July-June) crop year to 309.38 million tonnes. This drop in output has led to increased food prices, prompting government intervention such as export bans on rice and onions and regulated retail sales of essential food items Read | Above-normal monsoon forecast to ease inflationary concerns: Finance ministryIndia's retail food inflation eased to 8.52% in March from 8.66% in February next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion will be on 13 June.


Live Mint

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