Forex Today: Powell Triggers Bullish Sentiment


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  • Yesterday's FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate release saw the Fed hike rates as expected by 0.25%
    to 4.75%, the highest rate of any major currency. This was their eighth consecutive rate hike.
    The FOMC Statement maintained its existing language signalling“ongoing” rate hikes over the near term.
    The US Dollar and stocks initially barely reacted, but when Jerome Powell began his press conference, his words had the effect of triggering a firm bullish move in stocks and a selloff in the US Dollar, even though he said nothing notably dovish.
    Despite the indication of further rate hikes, markets are pricing in no more hikes and in fact are expecting 0.50% worth of cuts during the second half of 2023.
  • Stock markets have rallied. Notably,
    the s&p 500 index
    came very close to making a golden cross at close last night
    , with its 50-day SMA just a few points off moving above its 200-day SMA for the first time in almost a year, since 11th
    March 2022.
    This is typically a strong long-term buy signal. Notably, the price ended the day with a close right on the former key resistance level at 4121, strengthening the bullish case. If the price rises today to close above 4121, that will be a bullish sign.
  • In the Forex market, the US Dollar is the weakest major currency while the Euro and the Australian Dollar are the strongest. The Dollar has sold off since the Fed's release yesterday , with the US Dollar Index finally breaking below its former support level at 101.07.
    the eur/usd currency pair
    made a bullish breakout continuing its long-term bullish trend, trading as high as $1.1020, its highest price since April 2022.
    the usd/jpy currency pair
    is also falling but has not broken down to new long-term lows.
  • Many commodities are performing strongly
    and are reaching, or have recently reached, new long-term highs, such as
    gold ,
    copper , Steel, and
    sugar . Trend traders may be interested in being long of these assets, especially
    Gold which has just reached a new 10-month high at $1,959 per ounce.
  • The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will be making their major policy releases today. Both are expected to hike rates by 0.50%.
  • The
    US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast
    came in well below the expected
    176k new jobs, predicting only 106k will be added by the release due Friday.
  • The
    US JOLTS Job Openings and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data
    yesterday showed slightly stronger jobs growth but a weaker than expected manufacturing sector.
  • Daily
    confirmed
    new global coronavirus cases
    decreased last week for the sixth consecutive week, but there are serious doubts over the veracity of China's official statistics, which almost certainly dramatically understate new coronavirus cases.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 675.4
    million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%.
    Daily new confirmed cases have fallen to a low level not seen since the summer of 2020. New cases are rising notably in Taiwan.
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