Somalia-Ethiopia: Will Ankara Deal Ease Tensions In Horn Of Africa

(MENAFN- The Peninsula) QNA

Doha: In a major step that could pave the way for easing the tensions, a deal was reached between Somalia and Ethiopia in December 2024, to initiate technical talks to resolve the diplomatic dispute that emerged due to the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the seeking secession region, triggering anger in Somalia which considered it a breach of its sovereignty.

Such persistent dispute is part of the unremitting challenges in the Horn of Africa which enjoys a strategic location, where Political and security issues are entangled, such as dispute over water and ports, as well as the lingering security threats.

While this deal is a first step toward pacification, however, the key question is whether this deal would contribute to achieving an enduring stability in the region.

The Horn of Africa geographically extends from the western Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in a horn-like shape, encompassing four countries, namely Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.

However, from a political and economic standpoint, the region is often expanded to include Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda, due to their significant engagement in regional dynamics and interconnected interests.

The relationships among the nations of the Horn of Africa have been molded by ongoing tensions, which were sharply highlighted during a recent diplomatic crisis between Somalia and Ethiopia. This crisis erupted when Ethiopia signed a MoU with Somaliland, a region seeking independence.

Based on this MoU, Ethiopia secures access to a maritime outlet, which includes a commercial port and a military base in the Berbera region for a duration of 50 years. in return, Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland as an independent state, despite the region having unilaterally declared independence decades ago, without receiving international recognition.

Since then, Somalia has been accusing Ethiopia of undermining its sovereignty and threatened to dispel its peacekeeping forces. However, following a 10-month period of tensions of international mediation, Somalia agreed with Ethiopia after Turkish-brokered talks in Ankara to work together for conflict settlement and engaging in technical negotiations by the end of February 2025.

In culmination of this deal, Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, visited Ethiopia last Saturday, and met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, signaling an entente.

Before embarking on his visit, President Mohamud posted on his X account highlighting that the discussions with the Ethiopian leadership were intended to improve bilateral relationship, advance shared priorities and resume a new era between the two countries.

A joint statement issued by the governments of the two countries indicated that Sheikh Mohamud and Abiy Ahmed, agreed to strengthen bilateral ties through the full diplomatic representation in the two countries' capitals.

In the Turkish-brokered deal, both countries pledged to open serious talks in February which are expected to be culminated in a final deal in a period not more than 4 months to surmount numerous thorny issues.

During that time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the deal would provide Ethiopia with maritime access. However, he did not mention the details of the implementation mechanism, and the fate of the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland remains uncertain to this day.

The Ankara deal has echoed throughout the broader geopolitical landscape of the region. In a significant diplomatic exchange last Saturday in Cairo, where the foreign ministers of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea convened, Egyptian Foreign Minister, Badr Abdel Aaty, underscored that the security of the Red Sea is primarily predicated upon the collective will and sovereignty of its littoral states.

He asserted that it remains solely within their prerogative, articulating Egypt's rejection of any military or naval presence, emphasizing that such matters should be exclusively determined by the coastal nations themselves.

Recently, relations between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea have strengthened, culminating in the formation of an alliance during a summit in Asmara, Eritrea.

In addition, Egypt and Somalia previously reached a deal for Egypt's participation in a new African Union's peacekeeping mission, set to be deployed this month, setting the state for the deployment of 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to Somalia.

Constrained by its landlocked status, Ethiopia, has long relied on neighboring ports, including those in Djibouti, despite investing USD4 billion in rail infrastructure. However, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has actively pursued direct access to the Red Sea to bolster its trade capabilities and control over its economic resources.

Ethiopia began constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011, to generate electricity, gradually filling the reservoir, which raised concerns in Egypt and Sudan.

Both countries called for a legally binding agreement to regulate dam operations and secure their share of Nile waters. However, negotiations among the three nations have failed to produce such an agreement.

The Nile water dispute and GERD have been a major source of contention between Cairo and Addis Ababa, with Egyptian Foreign Minister recently emphasizing Egypt's rejection of unilateral actions regarding shared water resources.

The Horn of Africa's geopolitical landscape is marked by Ethiopia's struggles with its landlocked status, while Somalia faces sovereignty disputes with its neighbors, with the unremitting tensions over the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, compounded by political conflicts, humanitarian crises, and drought, continuing to destabilize the region and challenging its populations.

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