Iran relentlessly pushes its agenda to dominate the region
Date
12/23/2024 6:33:20 AM
(MENAFN) Over the past few decades, Iran has been relentlessly pushing its agenda to dominate the region, particularly in the Fertile Crescent, stretching from Iraq to Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Through its allies, Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran sought to encircle Israel with a threat of violence as part of its broader plan for its destruction. The downfall of the Assad Regime in Syria significantly hindered Iran's plans, pushing the country back. However, this vacuum was quickly filled by Turkey under President Erdogan. Erdogan supported Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the new ruler of Syria, providing financial and military support to his forces and backing their efforts to topple the Assad regime in Damascus.
Erdogan's involvement in Syria has been driven by multiple motivations: to weaken Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, which threatens Turkish unity with its large Kurdish population, and to address the refugee crisis created by millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Additionally, Erdogan aims to diminish Iran’s influence in the region, as Turkey and Iran are both rivals politically and religiously. However, Erdogan's ambitions in Syria are not without challenges. While al-Julani has accepted Turkey's support, it remains uncertain whether he will be fully loyal to Turkey’s interests or even act as a Turkish "agent." Moreover, Turkey lacks the economic and military resources to fully control Syria, and the complexity of the situation remains high.
Turkey’s broader ambitions, much like Iran's, include a return to past glory—specifically the Ottoman Empire's dominance over the Middle East. Erdogan, like the Iranian ayatollahs, uses Islamism and anti-Israel sentiment to unify the region under his influence. Historically, Israel was once allied with both Turkey and Iran, as they were moderate, pro-Western nations. However, after Iran's 1979 revolution, it became an Islamic republic under the ayatollahs, and its regional and internal failures have continued to mount, leading to growing discontent. This increasing domestic dissatisfaction with Iran's leadership suggests that the ayatollahs’ rule may eventually end, though this may take years.
At the same time, Turkey is moving in the opposite direction, becoming more radicalized under Erdogan’s leadership. The idea of "Iran becoming Turkey and Turkey becoming Iran" as envisioned by orientalist Bernard Lewis may be on the horizon: Turkey becoming a radical Islamic state while Iran turns towards moderation. The future of Turkey’s ambitions in Syria and the Middle East remains uncertain, as does the ability of al-Julani to establish a successful Islamic state in Syria under Turkish protection. This shift in power has caused anxiety among Arab countries, particularly Egypt and the Gulf states, who are looking for ways to confront the new challenges on their borders. Despite this, the threat posed by Iran remains a critical concern, one that continues to overshadow the current regional dynamics.
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