The Consequences Of Syria's Collapse

(MENAFN- Daily News Egypt) Over the past few days, dramatic and unprecedented events have unfolded in Syria. In less than 10 days, Bashar al-Assad's Regime fell to a Sunni-Kurdish alliance-an outcome that was neither anticipated nor imagined. This historic shift is not merely a local event; it is a regional and global upheaval that will fundamentally change the rules of the game.

The consequences of Syria's collapse extend far beyond its borders. First, it marks the definitive end of the Iran-led“axis of resistance,” which Tehran painstakingly nurtured and funded for decades. Second, it threatens the stability of neighboring countries such as Jordan and Iraq. Third, it grants Turkey the opportunity to expand its regional influence, a role it has long coveted. Fourth, it poses a multifaceted challenge to Israel. Finally, the shockwaves could reverberate as far as Ukraine and even destabilize Russia, which has been a staunch backer of Assad's regime.

With such sudden and sweeping changes, conspiracy theories inevitably surface to explain the unexpected. One theory posits a secret deal involving Iran, Russia, the United States, NATO, Turkey, Israel, and key Arab actors. According to this narrative, the Assad regime's removal was orchestrated to cripple Hezbollah, force Iran's withdrawal from Syria and Lebanon, and curb its support for the Houthis. In return, Russia would allow Syria to come under Turkish, American, and Israeli influence, while NATO would pressure Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire with Moscow. Iran, for its part, would freeze its nuclear program for eight years under strict supervision.

While these claims remain speculative, the collapse did align with recent setbacks suffered by Iran and its proxies. Israeli strikes on Iranian assets and Hezbollah's recent losses accelerated the regime's demise. Yet, even Western intelligence agencies failed to foresee the speed of Assad's collapse-a moment reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. For Tehran, the Syrian collapse signals an existential crisis, as its ambition of joining the nuclear club remains unrealized.

For Israel, Syria's collapse brings both opportunities and significant risks. Chief among these is the potential rise of Sunni jihadist factions along its borders in the Golan Heights and southern Syria. While the decline of Shiite influence may limit Iran's reach, it creates a power vacuum that extremist Sunni elements could exploit. Israel will likely respond by strengthening military deployments in the Golan and engaging Sunni factions in southern Syria, as well as forming deeper ties with the Druze community in Sweida and the Kurdish forces controlling northeast Syria.

Shortly before Assad's fall, a reported Russian-Turkish-Iranian agreement in Doha allowed Turkey to secure guarantees regarding the protection of minorities and Shiite shrines in exchange for a Syrian army withdrawal from Homs. However, Syria's future remains uncertain. Tensions will likely escalate between pro-Turkish factions and American-aligned Kurdish forces, particularly over control of Syria's oil fields and agricultural regions. The Kurds will push for a federal entity, as might the Alawites in the coastal regions. If Turkish-backed groups fail to agree on governance, shared control of key cities by armed factions will prolong instability, potentially for years.

Syria's rapid unraveling highlights a troubling pattern of state collapse across the Middle East. Time and again-whether in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, or now Syria-the cycle repeats itself. Regime officials insist on stability, even as their power crumbles. Leaders are deposed, institutions are destroyed, and promises of recovery follow, often with talk of reclaiming looted assets. Yet the result is invariably fragmentation, prolonged chaos, and foreign interference.

The repetition of this scenario raises an uncomfortable question: Why are regimes in the region so susceptible to collapse? Despite the predictability of these endings, no lessons appear to be learned. Each time, the result is the irreversible disintegration of the state, leaving citizens to bear the consequences.

The fall of Assad's Syria is not an isolated incident-it is a seismic event whose repercussions will reshape the Middle East and beyond. Whether it brings a fragile new order or entrenches further chaos remains to be seen.

Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University

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