Ceasefire with Hezbollah represents lost opportunity for Israel
Date
11/28/2024 6:03:00 AM
(MENAFN) The ceasefire with Hezbollah, while achieving a separation between the fighting fronts in Lebanon and Gaza, represents a lost opportunity for Israel. Iran, notably absent from the agreement, remains a crucial factor in the region. It is unlikely to abandon Hezbollah, its primary strategic arm in the Middle East, which plays a key role in advancing Iran's regional dominance and its goal of eliminating Israel. Following the ceasefire, Iran is expected to work quickly to rebuild Hezbollah’s capabilities and maintain its influence in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, which has faced internal criticism from its Shiite base, is likely to focus on restoring its strength and prestige with the financial support of Iran. This will involve the implementation of an extensive recovery plan, bolstered by billions of dollars. Additionally, units of the Quds Force, responsible for arming and enhancing Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, will continue their activities under the radar. The Iranian military, including the Radwan Force, will also resume training Hezbollah operatives, preparing for potential future conflict with Israel, such as the "Occupy the Galilee" plan.
The ceasefire agreement raises concerns regarding the enforcement of security. Israel’s reliance on external forces, such as UNIFIL and the Lebanese army, to enforce the ceasefire is problematic. The Lebanese army, deeply infiltrated by Hezbollah, is unlikely to effectively counter the group, undermining U.S. expectations that the army will uphold the agreement. Iran's leadership, particularly Ayatollah Khamenei, has already declared Hezbollah the victor of the conflict. Despite Hezbollah's losses, Tehran remains committed to its proxy’s survival and will focus on strengthening its capabilities for the next confrontation with Israel.
The absence of a buffer zone between Hezbollah and Israel means that Hezbollah will likely resume operations along the southern Lebanese border, with Iran’s continued assistance. As Israel withdraws from Lebanon and demobilizes its reserves, it will be increasingly difficult to re-engage in a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah. The lack of a reliable mechanism to hold Hezbollah accountable for violating the ceasefire, especially with Iran’s backing, reinforces the feeling in Israel that a golden opportunity has been missed. Without addressing Iran’s broader strategy, including its control over Hezbollah, Israel's achievements on the battlefield may not translate into lasting security or success.
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