La Niña Could Arrive In January 2025 To Lower Global Temperatures

(MENAFN- Costa Rica News) 2024 will be remembered as the hottest year in history, even though 2023 was defined as a year with the highest temperatures. The average temperature was 0.13°C warmer than the previous record, corresponding to 2016.

The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45°C (with an uncertainty range of ± 0.12°C) above the pre-industrial era reference value.

Two major factors were responsible for the high temperatures in 2024: first, climate change, or the climate crisis, and second, the El Niño phenomenon.

However, there is talk that 2025 could be less warm than 2024 thanks to the La Niña phenomenon.

Presumably, high global average temperatures are expected.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that there is a 60% probability that La Niña will occur at the end of December or January 2025 and that it will persist until March of the same year.

It should be noted, that La Niña is a climatic phenomenon that is associated with the following:

✓ An anomalous cooling of the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

✓ Lower precipitation and drought conditions.

La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle that can cause episodes of extreme weather around the globe, and its effects vary from place to place.

Despite climate projections for 2025, there is no full certainty that La Niña will develop.

NOAA's initial predictions have not come true and there is still uncertainty about what could happen during the summer.

However, experts say parts of northern South America could receive more rain than usual. Southern regions of the United States and parts of Mexico could be drier than normal, and the far northern United States and southern Canada could be wetter than average.

The aforementioned Met Office anticipates a warmer 2025 than 2024.

The data obtained from climate models by the Met Office, for the moment, show that 2025 could end with a global average temperature somewhat lower than that of 2024. According to the British model, 2025 could end with a temperature close to 1.41 °C above pre-industrial values.

The World Meteorological Organization reported that between January and September 2024, the average global temperature was 1.54 (±0.13) °C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Long-term warming measured over decades remains below 1.5 °C.

The last ten years have been the warmest on record and sea temperatures are rising.

In Antarctica, sea ice extent was the second lowest ever observed, while the retreat of glaciers is accelerating.

Experts have pointed out that the formation of La Niña does not imply that the rest of the planet will stop warming. It will continue to do so as long as we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions that continuously warm both our atmosphere and oceans.

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) focused discussions on the New Collective Quantitative Collective Goal (NCQG). Whose objective was designed to mobilize the necessary climate finance in which many discussions are entangled to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement

This edition was known as the“COP of finance” due to the negotiations on the NCQG that seeks fair and sustainable climate finance.

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years.

The report states that for each year between 2024 and 2028, the global average near-surface temperature is projected to be between 1.1 °C and 1.9 °C higher than the 1850-1900 reference period. The WMO indicates that there is a probability (86%) that at least one of these years will reach a new historical maximum temperature, above that of 2023.

Here it is important to highlight the speech of the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres,“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet. We have to find a way out of this highway that leads us to climate hell. The good news is that we are in control of the steering wheel. The fight to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C will be won or lost in the 2020s, under the watchful eye of today's leaders.”

The global average temperature for the past 12 months (June 2023 to May 2024) has been the highest ever recorded: 1.63 °C above the average value for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset.

There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C threshold.

Near-term (annual) warming does not imply a permanent breach of the lower 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement.

At least one of the next five years is likely to be the warmest on record, exceeding 2023.

The report highlights that action against climate change is imperative.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations charged with promoting international cooperation in atmospheric sciences and meteorology.

The WMO monitors weather, climate, and water resources and provides support to its members in forecasting and disaster mitigation.

If the La Niña phase occurs in the first quarter of 2025, the Early Warning System (SAT) of the National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica (IMN) reports that temperatures are high in the Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic, and this condition will remain at least until March 2025. They also speak of the Hurricane season, of the Atlantic Basin (Tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico) that began in May, and accumulated to November 18, 2024, a total of 18 systems, of which seven have been tropical storms.

Regarding the season of thrusts and cold fronts, the IMN estimates slightly less activity than normal.“Climatologically, some 24 cold pushes entering the Caribbean Sea and 2 cold fronts affecting the national territory are recorded; for the 2024-2025 cold front season, 2 cold fronts are estimated, reaching the national territory and 22 cold pushes entering the Caribbean Sea.”

The IMN report emphasized that based on the Drought Early Warning System (SAT-drought) managed by the National Meteorological Institute, the Caribbean breaks with the meteorological drought condition.“There is no meteorological drought in any climatic region of the country”.

Regarding the monthly climatic perspective of rainfall for the January to March 2025 quarter, they estimate normal rainy conditions in the climatic regions of the Eastern (-10%) and Western (+10%) northern zone; while surplus rainfall scenarios (+15%) are expected in the Southern Caribbean and Northern Caribbean, maintaining their dry season in the regions of the Pacific slope and Central Valley.

In the January to March 2025 quarter, warmer than normal average temperatures are expected (0.5 °C to 1.0 °C, in the Pacific slope and Central Valley; as well as between 0.25 °C to 0.5 °C in the Caribbean slope and northern zone (Eastern and Western).

Studies by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show a difficult panorama for the planet, forecasting that certain places on Earth will be uninhabitable by the year 2050, due to the high temperatures resulting from global warming.

NASA's satellite records determine the places that will suffer the most from the effects of this phenomenon, among them: the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, South Asia, East China, Brazilian regions, and West of the United States.

Other areas may also be affected by global warming, although they may not become uninhabitable in the years indicated, such as the southeastern United States, the Mediterranean Sea coast, Italy, North Africa, southern Spain, India, and the northern Gulf of Guinea.

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