(MENAFN- KNN India)
New Delhi, Jan 13 (KNN) India is projected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major steel-consuming Economy in 2025, with an anticipated demand growth of 8-9 percent, according to a recent report by CRISIL's market Intelligence and Analytics.
The robust growth forecast is attributed to increasing steel-intensive construction activities in housing and infrastructure sectors, coupled with strengthening demand from engineering and packaging segments.
The report indicates that India's steel demand experienced an estimated 11 percent increase in the previous year, though domestic supply remains a significant concern.
The market dynamics in 2024 were notably influenced by a combination of rising imports and declining exports, which resulted in an additional 3.2 million tonnes of finished steel availability, representing 2 percent of total finished steel demand.
A dramatic shift in import patterns has emerged over recent years, particularly in trade relationships with key exporters. China, traditionally known for exporting value-added and specialty steel products to India, has significantly expanded its export portfolio.
Between 2022 and 2024, Chinese finished steel imports to India increased 2.4-fold, with hot-rolled coils and strips (HRC) imports showing a remarkable 28-fold increase.
Similar trends were observed with other major exporters, as Japan's overall finished steel imports grew 2.8-fold and Vietnam's increased 8-fold during the same period, while South Korea's share in India's import basket declined.
The market witnessed significant price movements throughout 2024, with domestic HRC and cold-rolled coils and strips (CRC) prices declining by 9 and 7 percent respectively.
This downturn was partially offset by favourable raw material costs, as coking coal prices decreased by 12 percent for Premium Low Volatility grade from Australia, although iron ore prices rose by 9-10 percent during the period.
Looking ahead to 2025, the industry's proposed safeguard duty, if implemented, could substantially influence steel prices, with the impact expected to be most pronounced in the first half of the year.
The continuing price differential between Chinese exports and domestic production remains a key factor in market dynamics, as Chinese HRC export prices, which fell by 12 percent in 2024, continue to undercut domestic rates.
(KNN Bureau)
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