(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) Investorideas, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Quasar Elizundia Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
"The US labor market has ended 2024 with unexpected strength, significantly exceeding market expectations. The addition of 256,000 new jobs in December, the highest figure in nine months, contrasts with forecasts of 160,000, consolidating a year of economic resilience. This robust data adds to a series of positive economic indicators, such as the services PMI and job openings, strengthening the narrative of a reduced need for an aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
This labor market performance, bringing the total jobs created in 2024 to 2.2 million, though below the 3 million in 2023, directly impacts monetary policy expectations. Markets now more strongly anticipate that the first rate cut may not occur until the second half of 2025, with some suggesting it could be the only downward adjustment. This outlook diverges significantly from the Fed's revised projections at its December FOMC meeting, which reduced rate cut expectations from four to two for the next year.
The strength of the US labor market, highlighted in the December non-farm payroll report, raises questions about the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. This data, coupled with other positive economic indicators, suggests that the economy might be holding up better than expected, potentially delaying the need for rate cuts.
A sectoral breakdown reveals particular dynamism in areas like healthcare (+46,000 jobs), government (+33,000), and retail trade (+43,000), the latter recovering from a contraction in November. However, certain weaknesses in manufacturing (-13,000 jobs) are evident.
This strengthening of the US dollar, driven by robust economic data, is reflected in the DXY index, briefly reaching the 110 mark with a gain of approximately 0.7%. This appreciation of the dollar pressures emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, where the Mexican peso posted losses of over 0.8%. Additionally, downward pressure is observed in the equity markets, with the S&P 500 falling more than 1.5%.
The market's reaction to this data is clear: a stronger dollar, higher fixed-income yields, and pressure on equities. This scenario underscores the importance of closely monitoring the evolution of the US economy and its impact on global markets."
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