Friend Or Foe? Southeast Asia Braces For Trump 2.0


(MENAFN- Asia Times) BANGKOK – As Southeast Asian nations grapple with US President-elect Donald Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and trade war threats, the incoming leader's second tour will put the region's trade-dependent nations on edge and its authoritarian regimes at ease.

“In his first term, he [Trump] did not exhibit interest in the Promotion of democracy or human rights,” Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former Thai foreign Minister and trade representative, said in an interview.“This tendency is expected to continue.

“Governments in Southeast Asia with human rights or democracy issues will feel less or no pressure on this front,” Kantathi opined.

Those leaders, including in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, all seen as leaning toward China, can expect less confrontation from Washington in responding to their lack of fair elections, free speech and other human rights-related issues, which Democratic administrations like the outgoing Joe Biden government often emphasize.

Regional leaders are also presumably adjusting their diplomatic behavior to respond to Trump's erratic style.

“Under his strongman leadership, a personal relationship with him has heightened value,” Kantathi said.“Leaders with skills in complimenting Trump will benefit. Charm offensive skills will have enhanced value.

“Government leaders who show preference for a transactional approach and determination to work towards a trade balance with the US, will be seen in a positive light,” the former top envoy added.

Trump's return to power threatens to spark a US-China trade war , which some analysts suggest may benefit countries like Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam as companies seek to relocate their operations from China to Southeast Asia to eschew Trump's tariffs.

During Trump's previous term, a first trade war salvo on select Chinese goods drove many companies out of China and into Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs and quotas on“made-in-China” goods and services. Vietnam was a particular beneficiary of that migration, but a next bigger exodus could benefit others.

“Cambodia could be a major winner if the US President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threat to drastically hike tariffs on Chinese goods,” the Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times online recently reported.“US companies are already planning to shift production to the kingdom [Cambodia] from China as they look for alternative sources of goods.”

Cambodia Chamber of Commerce vice president Lim Heng told the local publication,“We know all about the [trade] war threat between China and America. This threat will push Chinese companies to invest more in Cambodia .”

“Chinese companies and regional companies will come here and invest in Cambodia and export to the US, Europe and other places,” he projected.

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Asia Times

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