‘World’s most precise economist’ foresees US election results
Date
10/30/2024 8:38:54 AM
(MENAFN) Christophe Barraud, an economist renowned for his accurate forecasts and recognized by Bloomberg as the leading forecaster of the American economy, has stated that Republican candidate Donald trump is “most probably” poised to win the upcoming US presidential election. With only one week remaining until Election Day, recent polls indicate a razor-thin margin between Trump and his Democratic opponent, current Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads by less than one percentage point. The New York Times highlights that the electoral landscape in battleground states remains exceptionally competitive.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, Barraud analyzed various indicators, including betting markets, polls, and forecasts from election modelers. He concluded that the most probable outcomes suggest a victory for Trump and a potential Republican sweep in Congress. Barraud, who serves as the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities, has consistently been recognized as the Top Forecaster of the US Economy by Bloomberg since 2012, with only one exception.
In a separate interview with Business Insider, Barraud elaborated on potential election scenarios. He noted that a Trump victory, coupled with a Republican majority in both the House and Senate, would empower the new administration to implement significant tax cuts for both corporations and households. Additionally, such a scenario would likely shift the focus of US policy from international issues to domestic concerns. Barraud predicts that this political landscape would have a favorable short-term impact on US economic growth, projecting a GDP increase of between 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025.
As the election approaches, the dynamics continue to evolve, and Barraud's predictions may shape discussions around the potential economic implications of the election outcome. With the race tightening, many eyes will be on the battleground states that could determine the direction of the country for the next four years.
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