IMF predicts economic growth to remain at ‘stable yet underwhelming’ state
Date
10/23/2024 8:10:53 AM
(MENAFN) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook report, projecting global economic growth to remain at a "stable yet underwhelming" rate of 3.2 percent for both 2023 and 2024. The report, titled “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” highlights various challenges that are expected to hinder growth over the next five years, including aging populations, low productivity levels, and persistent high policy uncertainty. While inflationary pressures have eased in many parts of the world, the IMF cautions countries to "brace for uncertain times," as these factors continue to dampen growth projections.
In a more region-specific analysis, the report indicates a modest increase in the US growth forecast for 2024, raising it from 2.6 percent to 2.8 percent. The outlook for 2025 has also been adjusted upwards, with projections increasing from 1.9 percent to 2.2 percent. However, the situation in Europe appears to be less optimistic, as the euro area's growth projections for 2023 have been downgraded from 0.9 percent to 0.8 percent, and the forecast for 2024 has also been cut from 1.5 percent to 1.2 percent. Germany, being Europe’s largest economy, saw its growth forecast for 2023 slashed to 0 percent, down from a previous estimate of 0.2 percent, with the 2024 projection lowered from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent.
In contrast, some countries in the region saw slight improvements, with Spain’s growth forecast for 2023 rising to 2.9 percent, while it remains stable at 2.1 percent for 2024. Italy’s projection for this year holds steady at 0.7 percent, but the forecast for next year has been revised down to 0.8 percent. In Japan, the growth estimate for 2023 has been lowered to 0.3 percent, although the projection for 2024 has increased to 1.1 percent. The UK's growth forecast for 2024 has also seen an improvement, now estimated at 1.1 percent, with the 2025 forecast unchanged at 1.5 percent.
Focusing on emerging and developing economies, the report notes that China’s growth estimate for 2023 has been lowered to 4.8 percent, down from an earlier forecast of 5 percent, while its 2024 projection remains steady at 4.5 percent. In contrast, India's economic growth forecast remains robust, unchanged at 7 percent for this year and 6.5 percent for the next. Russia's growth outlook for 2024 has improved from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent, although the estimate for 2025 has been revised down from 1.5 percent to 1.3 percent. Türkiye's economic growth estimate has been adjusted downward to 3 percent for 2023, down from 3.6 percent in the previous July outlook, while the projection for 2024 remains unchanged at 2.7 percent.
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