(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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The latest summit of the CIS in Moscow once again revealed the
evolving dynamics between Armenia and Russia. Contrary to
expectations of a widening rift, the meeting between Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol
Pashinyan underscored a complex but enduring relationship. While
economic ties are often highlighted, with bilateral trade turnover
between the two countries reaching $8.3 billion in the first half
of 2024-2.5 times higher than the same period last year-this summit
pointed to more pressing geopolitical concerns, specifically the
future of Armenia's borders and the Zangazur Corridor.
One of the critical topics during the summit was the Zangazur
Corridor, a pivotal regional infrastructure project connecting
Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Russian spokesman Dmitry
Peskov had confirmed the corridor would be discussed, and the
significance of this project cannot be overstated. Yet, Armenia
continues to hinder progress on this front, despite the November
10, 2020, Tripartite Agreement that specified Armenia must open
transport connections between western Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
This obstructionism not only jeopardises regional stability but
also raises serious concerns about Armenia's true strategic
intentions.
Adding to the complexity is the future of Armenia's border
protection. As of January 1, 2025, Armenian and Russian border
guards will jointly control the Armenian-Iranian and
Armenian-Turkish state borders, but notably, the Armenian-Iranian
checkpoint will be fully managed by Armenia's National Security
Service. This adjustment hints at Yerevan's increasing inclination
to limit Russian influence over its borders, a move that could be
seen as paving the way for foreign (non-Russian) actors,
potentially from the West, to fill the vacuum.
Pashinyan's so-called“Crossroads of Peace” project-a nonsense
plan he boldly proposed earlier-appears increasingly far-fetched as
his policies push Armenia closer to geopolitical turbulence. His
earlier statements about potentially entrusting Zangazur's security
to foreign private security forces exemplify the increasingly
erratic direction of Armenia's foreign policy. Similarly, Armenia's
readiness to open its territory for pipelines and transport links,
while a positive gesture on paper, is tainted by its continual
delays and evasive tactics regarding the Zangazur Corridor.
One cannot ignore the irony in Armenia's diplomatic pivot. Even
as Pashinyan plays up his country's pro-Western orientation, Russia
remains the most substantial investor in Armenia. This tug-of-war
between aligning with the West and maintaining Russian economic and
military support places Armenia in an unsafe position. By inviting
a European Union Civilian Observation Mission to monitor the
Armenia-Azerbaijan border-a move perceived as antagonistic by both
Moscow and Baku-Pashinyan further complicates his country's
strategic calculus. The EU mission, initially presented as a small
and temporary deployment, has now grown to over 200 personnel,
casting doubt on Yerevan's intentions. Armenia's actions-such as
freezing its activities in the CSTO and engaging with Western
powers-signal a departure from traditional alliances, including its
strategic partnership with Russia.
From Russia's perspective, Pashinyan's visit to Moscow clearly
indicates a deepening involvement where Moscow must balance its
interests in maintaining influence over Armenia while also ensuring
regional stability. However, as Russian border guards gradually
withdraw from Armenia, the pressing question is who will step in to
fill this security gap. The potential for foreign forces, possibly
from the West, to take over Armenia's borders would signify a
significant shift in the region's geopolitical landscape and has
the potential to escalate tensions, particularly with Iran.
Though for Azerbaijan, the Zangazur Corridor remains a
legitimate right under international law, crucial for connecting
its mainland to Nakhchivan. While Baku seeks a peaceful resolution,
Armenia's refusal to comply with previous agreements and its pivot
towards the West only increase the risk of further regional
destabilisation. Thus the larger question looming over Pashinyan's
Moscow visit is whether Armenia's ongoing blockade of the Zangezur
Corridor-combined with its inconsistent foreign policy-will push
the region towards further instability. Although, as I mentioned,
Azerbaijan remains committed to resolving the corridor issue
peacefully, it will not tolerate indefinite delays. As
international law dictates, Nakhchivan is part of Azerbaijan's
internationally recognised borders, and ensuring unimpeded access
to it is a legitimate and essential goal.
Pashinyan's manoeuvring in Moscow does little to assure
Armenia's neighbours of its true intentions. Instead, it raises
concerns that Yerevan, through its contradictory and obstructionist
policies, is sowing the seeds of future conflict. The question
remains: will Pashinyan's Armenia continue to gamble its regional
position in favour of Western patrons, or will it find a way to
reconcile with the realities of its geopolitical neighbourhood
before it's too late?
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