USD/INR Forecast Today 01/10: Gaps Lower Against INR (Video)
Date
10/1/2024 2:48:47 PM
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
The US dollar gapped lower showing signs of weakness against the Indian rupee right away on Monday but has turned around to fill that gap. Now it looks like the buyers are starting to step in and take control. Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a free floating currency. The bank of India has a heavy hand when it comes to how the rupee trades, because quite frankly, if the rupee gets eviscerated, you could have major problems in India itself.
It's essentially a lot like Japan where you have controlled demolition. As things stand right now, we are sitting just above the middle part of the overall consolidation region with the 19 rupee level underneath being support and the 20 rupee level above being resistance.
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It might be worth noting that right around 19.13, we have the 50 day EMA and that could come into the picture as well. This is a pair that is rather choppy most of the time, so none of this action should be a surprise. I do anticipate that the 19 rupee level will end up being rather significant support. And as long as we can stay above there, we have a good shot at rallying towards the 20 rupee level. If we can break above 20.10 rupee, then I think the US dollar will take off and try to get to much higher levels.
In general, I don't have any interest in shorting this pair. I do think that the green bank will continue to punish the rupee and the very real possibility of an economic slowdown worldwide, as India, is a major player in the global trade situation, but not considered to be a safe haven.
All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but it is very much in an uptrend. I just don't see how the changes anytime soon as markets tend to be creatures of habit.
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