(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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On September 11, British Foreign Minister David Lammy and US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv. Ahead of the visit,
they expressed concerns at a joint press conference in London about
Iran's alleged transfer of short-range ballistic missiles to
Russia. Iran has strongly denied these claims, calling them
"completely baseless and false" and criticising what it sees as
Western hypocrisy. In response, the United States, Britain, France,
and Germany imposed further sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran's
"escalatory" actions, although they have yet to provide concrete
evidence and the weapon has not been observed on the battlefield.
This situation points to an increasing intensity in the conflict,
evolving into a complex hybrid war where psychological endurance
becomes a key factor for both sides.
Adding to the complexity, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey
Ryabkov recently stated in an interview that the decision to revise
Russia's nuclear doctrine was "connected with the escalation course
of our Western adversaries."
In this context, Azernews sought the views of
international experts on the evolving situation, particularly
regarding Russia's nuclear doctrine and the possibility of
Azerbaijan playing a mediating role in peace talks between Ukraine
and Russia.
Matthew Bryza, Former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and
Board Member of the Jamestown Foundation:
"It's important to note, though, that the United States,
Britain, France, and Germany have no obligation to provide any
evidence of what they believe is happening, which is that Iran is
providing ballistic missiles to Russia. Personally, I have no doubt
Iran is doing so. Based on testimony I've heard from U.S.
intelligence officials, including Bill Burns, the head of the CIA,
and from academic experts who are not political people, it's clear
Iran is transferring both 'Shahed' drones and ballistic missiles to
Russia for use in Ukraine, not on the battlefield, but against
civilians and energy infrastructure. And Iran has a very large
capacity to manufacture ballistic missiles. A second point is you
would never see the ballistic missiles on the battlefield because,
as I said, they're not used to attract troops by Russia. Russia
uses them to kill innocent civilians and to target Ukraine's
industrial and really its energy infrastructure.
Bryza also expressed scepticism about Russia's nuclear
threats, stating that tensions will likely de-escalate once Russia
realises its nuclear threats are not intimidating
anyone.
"I think that tensions will de-escalate as soon as Russia
understands it is not frightening anybody with its threats to use
nuclear weapons. It's looking foolish. And if it were to use a
nuclear weapon on the battlefield, as we now know, the United
States, via the person I mentioned before, Bill Burns, the former
ambassador to Russia and current head of the CIA, went to Moscow
last year when there were signs Russia was preparing to use nuclear
weapons or a nuclear weapon on the battlefield and explained to his
counterparts and to President Putin that were Russia to do that,
the U.S. and its allies would attack Russian soldiers in Ukraine
and destroy them. So Russia's threats to escalate to the nuclear
level are not deterring Ukraine's friends in the United States and
in Europe. And Deputy Minister Ryabkov, who used to be the deputy
ambassador in Washington, is doing what he's told to do, which is
that Russia tries always to frighten other countries because it
thinks that gives them power and influence.
Commenting on the issue, the Russian political expert,
Member of the Council on Foreign Relations under the
President of Russia, Bogdan Bezpalko, accused the West of
hypocrisy.
“I think that the West takes seriously the changes in Russia's
nuclear doctrine as a threat, or more precisely as a polite
warning. Especially in connection with the fact that Russia in no
way explains now that, in fact, it is going to change its nuclear
doctrines. We simply announced that we will make the necessary
changes. Of course, accusations against Iran of supplying missiles
are a manifestation of hypocrisy on the part of the West. Why?
Because Kyiv, Great Britain, France and other countries are
striving in every possible way to supply their own weapons,
including cruise missiles, to Ukraine. It turns out that they can
supply missiles to Ukraine, but Iran cannot supply missiles to
Russia. And, despite the fact that it, through its representatives,
denies this information, sanctions are going to be imposed against
Iran, or, at least, new sanctions are threatened. In any case, this
reflects the hypocrisy and double standards of Western countries.
Moreover, no sanctions were planned against Israel, especially
after the strike on the peaceful zone in the Gaza Strip and now the
death of 40 people are being introduced today. European countries
currently have no desire to be involved in the conflict. This is
evidenced, for example, by the clear position of German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz, who categorically refused to supply long-range Taurus
missiles, as well as to send military instructors for direct
participation in the conflict. Recently, Russian provocateurs
(pranksters) talked to Radosław Sikorski, who confirmed that the
desire to defend Ukraine in Poland is practically zero, this is a
quote, and that now even on the issue of destroying missiles from
Polish airspace, there is no clear agreement in Poland itself
within the Polish political community.
"Therefore, it is impossible to say at the moment that some
European countries may be involved in the conflict. But the
situation may change, and they may be forced to enter this
conflict. Moreover, it is European countries, not the United
States, that may experience an immediate threat, including the
threat of nuclear proliferation. The US is far away, the nuclear
cloud will not reach them, and now, in view of the possibility of
using nuclear weapons, they have ordered a study of the impact of
nuclear explosions on the agricultural sector. Obviously, the
possibility of certain products falling out of the global trade
network will be studied. As a result, for example, of the
involvement of European countries in this conflict and attacks on
them.
"But all this, in my opinion, is a matter of perspective, that
is, the future. Germany is openly preparing for war, but it is
preparing for war by 2030, maybe by 2027, 2028, 2029 or even 2030.
Right now, in 2024, not a single European country wants to enter
into a military conflict with Russia, does not plan to do so in the
person of its elites. They do not have weapons for this, they do
not have full-fledged well-mobilized armies, especially conscripts,
and they do not have sufficient finances. I think that now the role
of intermediaries is diminishing, simply because there is no room
for compromise. Türkiye is a rather specific mediator. On the one
hand, it acts, strives to act as a mediator between Russia and
Ukraine, and on the other hand, it makes statements that are, in
principle, unacceptable for Russia. For example, that Crimea should
return to Ukraine. I do not think that Azerbaijan can become such a
mediator now. The issue is not some contradictions in
Russian-Azerbaijani relations, but simply that there is no real
basis for negotiations now. That is, the efforts of any mediator,
even such a powerful one, say, as China or India, will simply be
fruitless now because the demands of the parties are mutually
exclusive.”
In addition, the Azerbaijani political commentator
Farhad Mammadov, Director of the South Caucasus Research
Centre, expressed his opinion on the change of Russia's
nuclear doctrines as well as the increase in the scale of the
conflict.
“I do not think that the threat of using nuclear weapons will play
any role in the Russian-Ukrainian war in the next 2-3 months. Until
the elections in the USA, the West will cross the red lines it
previously drew for itself. This includes the entry of the
Ukrainian army into Russian territory, the use of Western weapons
in the depths of Russia, etc. All this was predicted and is
happening now. Until the elections in the United States, such steps
will be taken to support the candidate of the Democratic party,
that is, to support her agenda.
"Regarding the role of Azerbaijan, it should be taken into
account that there are several forms of mediation. The first is
that both parties must agree to any country acting as a mediator.
The second point is that mediation can be general in relation to a
specific set of issues. For example, Azerbaijan can provide space
for negotiations. Secondly, Azerbaijan can be a mediator on
specific issues. For example, the field of energy, the issue of
Crimean Tatars captured in Russia, etc. Thus, both parties refer to
Azerbaijan regarding specific issues, and accordingly, Azerbaijan
can offer its mediation activities.”
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