(MENAFN- AsiaNet News) Scientists were taken by surprise on Wednesday when an asteroid, previously undetected, entered Earth's atmosphere. The asteroid, named 2024 RW1, was only one meter (3 feet) wide and was discovered just eight hours before it blazed across the sky over the Philippines, creating a stunning fireball. Fortunately, the asteroid was too small to cause any damage. However, its unexpected appearance serves as a stark reminder of the hidden dangers in our solar system.
Experts warn that Earth remains at risk from other space threats, including larger asteroids like the 'Valentine's Day asteroid' and massive rocks nearly a mile wide. Collisions between asteroids and Earth are not uncommon.
NASA estimates that approximately 48.5 tonnes of meteoric material enter Earth's atmosphere each day. Fortunately, most of these objects burn up in the atmosphere, creating the bright streaks we know as shooting stars.
Larger objects capable of piercing the atmosphere and hitting Earth are far less common, and rarely venture close to our planet's orbit. However, while asteroid collisions are unlikely, they are not impossible. Earth's surface already bears evidence of several past impacts.
One of the most famous occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide (9.65 km) asteroid struck Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, causing the extinction of the dinosaurs and leaving behind a 115-mile (185 km) wide crater.
Even smaller space rocks can cause significant damage, as demonstrated by the Chelyabinsk meteor. This 59-foot (18-meter) wide asteroid exploded over Russia in 2013, producing a shockwave that injured 1,500 people and damaged 7,300 buildings.
Although it was hundreds of times smaller than the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, its impact was still severe.
To mitigate such risks, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) run programs to detect, classify, and track Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Currently, ESA's "risk list" includes 1,634 NEOs, each with a non-zero chance of colliding with Earth.
Fortunately, none of these asteroids rank higher than one on the Torino Scale-a system that rates asteroid threats from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain catastrophic impact).
Here's a look at 6 asteroids that could hit Earth:
1.
Bennu
Discovered in September 1999, the asteroid Bennu is a significant potential threat to Earth. Measuring 1,574 feet in diameter and weighing 67 million tonnes, it is wider than the Empire State Building and 200 times heavier. NASA estimates a 1 in 2,700 chance of Bennu colliding with Earth on September 24, 2182. Such an impact could release energy equivalent to 1.4 billion tonnes of TNT, or "three times more energy than all nuclear weapons detonated throughout history," according to Professor Dante Lauretta from the University of Arizona. While the collision wouldn't be as catastrophic as the event that wiped out the dinosaurs, it could still cause millions of deaths.
Despite these concerns, there's no immediate cause for alarm. NASA's predictions will become more accurate as Bennu's next close approach approaches over the next 150 years, potentially altering the current odds. The asteroid has been a focus of extensive research, and in 2023, NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission returned a sample from Bennu, revealing it may contain essential building blocks of life, including potential sources of water.
2. 2023 DW - The Valentine's Day asteroid
Asteroid 2023 DW, measuring 166 feet across and traveling at 21.78 km/s, is predicted to have a potential collision with Earth on February 14, 2046. Similar in size to the asteroid involved in the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, 2023 DW could devastate an entire city if it were to strike. Initial estimates suggested a collision probability of 1 in 607, causing considerable concern.
However, recent observations have significantly reduced the risk. Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defense office, has lowered the odds from 1 in 784 to 1 in 1,584, and he assured the public that with ongoing observations, the risk will continue to decrease, likely reaching zero soon.
3. 1950 DA
Asteroid 1950 DA, with a diameter of 4,265 feet and weighing 71 million tonnes, is far larger than NASA's threshold for classifying a 'potentially hazardous object.' If it were to collide with Earth, it could unleash energy equivalent to 75 billion tons of TNT, comparable to the impact event that caused the dinosaur extinction. Fortunately, current estimates place the likelihood of a collision on March 16, 2880, at only 1 in 34,500.
In 2032, 1950 DA will pass within 112 million kilometers of Earth, offering a prime opportunity for close observation. NASA and the ESA are exploring asteroid deflection methods, such as high-speed satellite impacts or altering the asteroid's reflectivity with materials like chalk or glass beads. These techniques could potentially alter the asteroid's trajectory to ensure it avoids Earth.
4. 2023 TL4
Another asteroid with the potential to wipe out humanity is 2023 TL4. Discovered last year, scientists quickly identified it as one of the largest threats to Earth. This massive space rock measures 1,083 feet (0.33 kilometers) in diameter and weighs an estimated 43 million tonnes-over 4,500 times the weight of the Eiffel Tower.
If it were to collide with Earth, the impact could generate an explosion 150 times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated. Current estimates suggest that the probability of 2023 TL4 striking Earth on October 10, 2119, is one in 181,000. However, much like asteroid 1950 DA, this timeframe should provide space agencies with ample opportunity to deflect the asteroid if it begins to head toward our planet.
5. 2007 FT3
Asteroid 2007 FT3, measuring 2,165 feet across, is noted for its potential proximity to Earth, with a possible collision as soon as October 5 this year. However, current estimates place the likelihood of this impact at just one in 11.5 million. The chances improve slightly for a collision on March 3, 2030, with a probability of one in 10 million-still significantly lower than the odds of winning a Lotto jackpot.
Despite its low probability, asteroid 2007 FT3 remains on the ESA's risk list as a potentially hazardous object due to the non-zero chance of impact.
6. 1979 XB
Asteroid 1979 XB, with a diameter of 2,165 feet and weighing 49 million tonnes, has the potential to destroy an entire city if it were to collide with Earth. Discovered in 1979, it currently has an estimated impact probability of one in 1.8 million. However, since its initial detection, no observations have been made in the past 40 years, leaving its orbit poorly understood.
Given the recent impact of a previously undetected asteroid, concerns about 1979 XB have understandably increased. Predictions about its potential impact are based solely on early observations, heightening the sense of uncertainty surrounding this asteroid.
1. Bennu - Diameter: 1,574 ft,
Odds of collision: 1/2,700 on September 24, 2182
2. 1950 DA - Diameter: 6,561 ft;
Odds of collision: 1/34,500 on March 16, 2880
3. 2023 TL4 -
Diameter: 1,083 ft;
Odds of collision: 1/181,000 on October 10, 2119
4. 2007 FT3 -
Diameter: 2,165 ft;
Odds of collision: 1/11.5 million on October 5, 2024
5. 2023 DW - Diameter: 166 ft;
Odds of collision: 1/1,584 on February 14, 2046
6. 1979 XB - Diameter: 2,165 ft;
Odds of collision: 1/1.8 million on December 14, 2113
Are we in danger?
Recent concerns about asteroid impacts have raised significant alarm, but current scientific consensus indicates that Earth is safe for now. According to Dr. Greg Brown, Senior Public Astronomy Officer at the Royal Observatory Greenwich, "As of today, there are no known asteroids that are both large enough to be of concern and have a sizeable chance to impact the Earth."
While the statistics related to potential asteroid impacts can seem alarming, the likelihood of serious devastation remains extremely low. Most asteroids that could potentially hit Earth are expected to fall into the ocean or remote areas, which make up the majority of the planet's surface. This minimizes the risk of catastrophic impacts significantly.
However, Dr. Brown emphasizes that while large impacts are rare, they are a matter of "when, not if." This acknowledgment underlines the importance of continued vigilance and preparation. As a result, space agencies around the world are heavily investing in planetary defense initiatives.
One notable example is the European Space Agency's (ESA) DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid using a high-speed satellite collision in 2022. This mission demonstrates the growing capabilities in asteroid deflection and planetary defense.
Dr. Brown stresses the need for ongoing improvement in tracking and mitigating asteroid threats, stating, "It is important that we continue to improve our ability to track these objects and work on measures to protect ourselves if they occur." The advancements in technology and international cooperation are essential to ensuring Earth's safety from potential asteroid impacts in the future.
MENAFN05092024007385015968ID1108643011