China's Spy Bases In Cuba Could Be Key In A Taiwan War

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China's increased presence in Cuba could also influence the Caribbean nations that recognize Taiwan to renounce their position. These advantages make Cuba a valuable card in China's hands should a US-China conflict over Taiwan erupt.

In military terms, Robert Ellis says in a 2023 article for the Peruvian Army Center for Strategic Studies that even before hostilities, China would likely deploy military personnel into Latin America to support intelligence collection and special operations.

Ellis adds that these personnel might prepare for the disruption of crucial US facilities or routes such as the Panama Canal, observe US military operations from the Caribbean or even plan attacks against the US homeland.

Ellis notes that China might also use intelligence or special operations personnel to create diversionary crises within the region affecting the US, such as disrupting supply chains or creating a food crisis. He mentions that these forces might foment economic or political destabilization in US partner countries, leveraging economically dependent anti-US partners to support its efforts.

He also says that China may solicit support from extra-hemispheric anti-US partners like Russia and Iran and in-region partners like Venezuela and Nicaragua. Ellis adds that China could conduct economic or other sabotage to distract or indirectly impact the US, facilitated by the significant presence of Chinese companies in the region.

Beyond Cuba, China has deployed a multi-prong strategy to increase its influence in Latin America, featuring economic, political, information and cyber elements.

In a June 2023 Brookings Institution commentary , Jessica Brandt says that China has used its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to expand its engagement with more than 20 countries in Latin America to gain leverage that it can exert to geopolitical effect in the future.

However, Brandt notes that China's coercive economic activities, which use tactics such as boycotts, import restrictions and export quotas, can foster dependence in Latin American countries and undermine good governance, possibly contributing to illegal migration.

Further, Brandt says that China presents itself as helping Latin American societies in their struggle against hypocritical, overreaching democracies led by the US.

She also says that China's information operations in Latin America promote a narrative that casts democracy as feckless and hypocritical while touting the benefits of its autocratic system of governance. For instance, she points out that China has been keen to emphasize US hypocrisy in promoting human rights while mistreating migrants.

Brandt also says that China has provided surveillance systems to at least nine Latin American countries, with such technology possibly undermining human rights and contributing to illegal migration.

These developments may challenge longstanding US dominance over Latin America, as defined by the Monroe Doctrine. This doctrine asserts that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers is a potentially hostile act against the US.

In a June 2023 Irregular Warfare Initiative article , Daniel Vrablic notes that longstanding US preeminence in Latin America may be ending. Vrablic notes that China has accelerated its trade with the region, with more than US$700 billion expected by 2035, creating a gateway for more significant political and military influence.