How Will Europe Survive Without Russian Gas?
Date
1/15/2025 1:13:03 AM
(MENAFN- Asia Times)
Russia's contract for the transit of its gas across Ukraine expired on December 31 last year and Kyiv refused to consider a new deal. Ukraine's decision was supported by the European Commission, even though the lost imports are equivalent to 5% of European demand .
It may have come as a surprise to many that, in the middle of a war between the two countries, gas had continued to flow. And although most pipeline gas from Russia to Europe had ceased, in 2024, Europe imported a record 21.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied Natural gas (LNG) from Russia – 19% of its LNG imports.
Newly published data from Spain reveals that Russia remained its second-biggest supplier of LNG , accounting for 21.3% of Spain's LNG imports. The US remains the largest supplier of LNG to Europe, accounting for 48% of LNG supplied in 2024 .
About 20% of Russian LNG that comes to Europe is re-exported to third countries, a practice that will be banned by EU sanctions in March.
So, what is Europe's strategy here? And how might global Russian gas sales be affected by Ukraine turning off the taps?
In May 2022, three months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU launched its REPowerEU plan. One of its principal aims was to overcome the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels through the diversification of energy supplies.
The European Commission now points to the fact that 45% of the EU's gas imports came from Russia in 2021, and that share had fallen to 15% in 2023 (although data suggests it increased to 18% in 2024 thanks to higher imports of Russian LNG).
Breugel, Author provided (no reuse)But so far, the EU has not placed sanctions on importing Russian gas, though it has sanctioned the Arctic-2 LNG project and associated shipping and is banning the reloading of Russian LNG in EU ports.
The rapid reduction in pipeline exports to Europe is a result of Russian actions such as insisting on payment in roubles, as well as the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines , an event still subject to much conjecture.
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