(MENAFN- AsiaNet News) As the league stage of the IPL 2024 hurtles towards its climax, the race for playoff berths has reached a fever pitch. With just 14 games left to be played and with over 16,000 possibilities, the permutations and combinations have set the cricketing world abuzz. A TOI report delved into the intricacies of the playoff scenarios and dissected the chances of each team making it to the coveted top four.
1. Kolkata Knight Riders
Leading the pack, KKR stands tall with a commanding 36% chance of finishing as the sole table-toppers. Even a solitary win from their remaining three games could secure them the pole position. Their prospects of joint leadership on points are even more impressive at 62.5%. While they are in a strong position, a comprehensive analysis reveals that they are not entirely assured of a playoff berth. However, the probability of them missing out on the playoffs altogether is a mere 0.1%.
2. Rajasthan Royals
In a mirror image of KKR's situation, the Rajasthan Royals also boast a 36% chance of clinching the top spot individually. Their likelihood of sharing the lead is equally formidable at 62.5%. Yet, akin to KKR, they tread cautiously as a string of losses could potentially leave them tied for the fourth spot. However, the probability of this happening stands at a modest 0.3%.
3. Chennai Super Kings
Currently occupying third place, CSK holds a commendable 75% chance of securing a spot within the top four. Despite their consistent performance, their shot at clinching the first spot is a mere 4%. Their fate hinges on a potential joint leadership with one to three other teams.
4. Sunrisers Hyderabad
Hot on the heels of CSK, SRH boasts a healthy 72% chance of making it to the top four. However, their aspirations of clinching the numero uno spot are subdued, with just over a 2% chance of achieving joint leadership.
5. Delhi Capitals
DC finds themselves in a precarious position, lying fifth in the standings. With less than a 50% chance of breaking into the top four, their best-case scenario is joint second on points, with a little over a 4% chance of materializing.
6. Lucknow Super Giants
With an extra game in hand, LSG holds a promising 70% chance of securing a playoff berth. Like CSK and SRH, their hopes of topping the table are slim, with just over a 2% chance of sharing the lead.
7. Royal Challengers Bengaluru
RCB finds themselves in seventh place, with aspirations limited to tying for third or fourth. However, the chances of even that are slightly above 8%.
8. Punjab Kings
Similar to RCB, PBKS can only hope for a tied third or fourth spot, with a probability slightly exceeding 6%.
9. Gujarat Titans
At the bottom of the table, GT's chances of progressing are slim, standing at just over 8%. However, they hold a marginally better chance than Mumbai Indians due to an extra game.
10. Mumbai Indians
Sitting in the ninth position, the Mumbai Indians (MI) face nearly insurmountable odds in their bid for a playoff berth. Their path to contention narrows drastically, as only two out of a staggering 16,384 potential combinations allow them to claw their way to a tie for the fourth spot, accumulating 12 points alongside six other teams. This minute probability translates to a mere 0.01% chance of realization, painting a stark picture of MI's slim hopes amidst the fierce competition of the IPL 2024 season.
To paint a picture of their slim chances, consider this sequence: MI must triumph in their upcoming clashes against KKR and LSG. Then, they're left to bank on LSG's victory over SRH tonight (Wednesday), followed by PBKS securing a win in tomorrow's (Thursday) game against RCB. The stars align further with GT outplaying CSK, while RR also deals a blow to CSK's aspirations. RCB's triumph over DC and KKR's victory against GT further bolster MI's fleeting hopes. The domino effect continues with LSG prevailing over DC, RR triumphing over PBKS, and GT edging past SRH. RCB must then seal the deal by defeating CSK, while PBKS delivers the final blow to SRH. With 13 out of the remaining 14 results falling in their favour, MI's fate hangs by the thinnest of threads, with only the KKR vs RR encounter standing as inconsequential.
KKR, RR, CSK, SRH and LSG have higher chances of qualifying for playoffs
It's a safe bet to place your money on the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) securing playoff berths, likely to be accompanied by two out of Chennai Super Kings (CSK), Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG). However, the Delhi Capitals (DC) also have a reasonable chance of making the cut. For any other team to enter the playoff mix would require nothing short of a miraculous turn of events.
How the report calculated the teams' chances
According to the TOI report,
there are a whopping 16,384 potential combinations of match outcomes with 14 more games to go.
Each of these combinations has the power to reshape the final standings of the teams. By meticulously analyzing each scenario, the report ascertained the percentage of outcomes that favour a team's chances of clinching a top-four finish or even securing the coveted first spot.
Assuming each match is a 50-50 game, a reasonable assumption considering the unpredictability of the IPL, the report drew insights into the probabilities of various outcomes.
For instance, out of the 16,384 combinations, KKR emerges as leaders, either solely or jointly, in 10,240 scenarios, translating to a robust 62.5% chance of claiming the top spot in the standings.
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