Iran Attack Puts US Back On Israel's Side - For Now

Whatever the motive, the consequences of the Damascus attack have been to divert attention from Gaza and reinforce the relationship with Washington. What is really significant is that it has come at a fortuitous time for Netanyahu, because the Gaza war is simply not going according to plan.

The original intention following the brutal October 7 attacks by Hamas, was to so damage the organization that it ceased to be a security threat to the state of Israel. This objective has not been achieved – and six months on, Hamas is still active. It is also increasing its support in the occupied West Bank and has plenty of support across the wider Middle East.

As well as direct attacks on Hamas, in the early months of the war, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began to implement the Dahiya doctrine using disproportionate force with the aim of undermining support for Hamas within Gaza by the collective punishment of the whole population .

It is a tactic used by the IDF as far back as the siege of west Beirut in 1982 and was further developed during the costly 2014 war against Hezbollah.

So far, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed and several thousand more are missing, most presumed buried under rubble. Most of those killed have been women and children and there have been over 75,000 wounded.

Much of Gaza has been wrecked. This includes universities, colleges, schools and hospitals, as well as public works such as water treatment plants.

Despite this – and repeated Israeli claims that northern and central Gaza have been cleared of Hamas operations – the movement continues to operate across the whole territory and it is likely that most of the several hundred kilometers of underground tunnels are still controlled by Hamas.

The current problem for Netanyahu and the IDF is that if Israel is forced by Biden to provide sufficient aid for the Palestinian population – and especially if it has to accept a ceasefire of several weeks – then it makes it far more difficult to implement the Dahiya doctrine.

If the war ever was winnable, then it is not now. This is where having US and Western attention focused on Iran is so useful to Netanyahu – but to maintain that focus might not be easy.

The Iranian drone and missile attack appears at first sight to have been massive but there are indications that many of them were decoys , the likely aim being to test the effectiveness of the Israeli air defense system rather than do huge damage.

The attack was complex and involved regional cooperation with local groups launching weapons from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon as well as Iran itself.

The Iranian authorities are saying they will not respond further unless Israel attacks again , but their military will be analyzing the outcomes to plan for further actions should they be deemed necessary.

There have been some Israeli casualties but no deaths so far and much will depend on what Netanyahu does next.

There will be strong pressure on him for restraint, but he is a remarkable political survivor who knows full well that he becomes highly vulnerable if the focus returns to the war in Gaza.

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Netanyahu remains unpopular in Israel, but there is strong support for the war and there remains, beyond the immediate war in Gaza, the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

Just over a year ago, there was a fear that negotiations around this program were foundering . In the event, a breakdown was avoided.

Then, in May last year, news emerged from Iran of a massive new bunker being built near Natanz in the Zagros Mountains, buried so deep that it was beyond the reach of even the American GBU-57 earth-penetrating bomb which can burrow 60 meters underground before exploding.

Already there is a public discussion in Israel of the risk of Iran doing a dash for a limited nuclear capability , given that it already has a stock of partially enriched uranium, reportedly enough to develop three crude bombs.

For Netanyahu, a sustained focus on Iran's nuclear program would be politically useful but any substantial military action would carry formidable risks of unplanned escalation. For any other leader that might be enough to ensure caution, but perhaps not Benjamin Netanyahu.

Paul Rogers is Professor of Peace Studies, University of Bradford

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .