US Cranks F-35 Production In A Losing Race With China

The Warzone says the J-35 has long been linked to the People's Liberation Army-Navy's (PLAN) future catapult-assisted takeoff but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) carriers.

The report notes that the possibility of J-35s performing regular operations from Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers may make sense, as they would gain valuable experience and flight hours before the Fujian is fully ready.

Although the US has belatedly cleared the F-35 for full-rate production, it is unclear whether it will meet its production goals due to budget cuts that have resulted in reduced orders.

This month, Defense One reported that the US Air Force had been warned of cuts to purchases in its upcoming budget proposal due to reports that the service won't be able to buy as many F-35s as originally planned.

Defense One mentions that the US Department of Defense's (DOD) fiscal 2025 topline budget will be US$849.8 billion, about $10 billion less than forecast due to the US Congress's cap on defense spending.

Defense One mentions that the cap has forced officials to cut the number of F-35 jets they buy next year from 83 to 70. As for other fighter types, Breaking Defense reported this month that the US Air Force would be receiving 18 instead of 24 F-15EX fighters, with overall cuts resulting in just 86 out of 107 fighter jets initially planned for acquisition.

Despite that, the 2025 cuts are at a level that the service can accept and will still allow progress on modernization, Defense One stated.

In contrast, China is progressing steadily with its 5th-generation fighter program, with the J-20 as its flagship project.

Asia Times reported in February 2023 that China is set to surpass the US in 5th-generation fighter production, with its J-20 stealth fleet numbers expected to exceed the US F-22 inventory within this year.

F-22 production was stopped in 2011, with only 187 irreplaceable and increasingly obsolescent airframes built. In contrast, China may already have up to 200 J-20 fighters, based on serial numbers seen at the 2022 Zhuhai Air Show.

As of April 2022, the US has 450 F-35s but China's J-20 production is gaining speed. China's manufacturing techniques and jet engine technology have accelerated the production of the J-20, with China using world-class pulsating production lines to speed up fighter deliveries.

Asia Times reported in September 2022 that China's fighter force may already have caught up with the US in the Pacific. The US has only 11 fighter squadrons in the Pacific, while it reportedly needs 13. Meanwhile, only three out of eight US fighter squadrons are transitioning to newer aircraft, resulting in a smaller, older and less capable fighter force.

China is estimated to have 1,800 fighters divided among its five theater commands organized into seven to ten fighter brigades, with three to six fighter groups having 30 to 50 aircraft.

Ideally, the US must maintain 134 modernized, well-equipped fighter squadrons and a production rate of 72 fighters per year to maintain combat capability while retiring older aircraft.

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As to how America's F-35 compares with China's J-35, Joseph Trevithick notes in a July 2022 The Warzone article that the J-35 has a F-35-like front opening, an internally bowed canopy with an integral bulkhead at the rear and a rear canopy configuration similar to F-35A and F-35C variants.

Trevithick notes that the J-35's canopy is less severely“bubbled” and blends more evenly with the airframe towards its rear.

He points out that the F-35, which is arguably the prototype for the J-35's design, has a canopy configuration resulting from a design compromise to accommodate the lift fan and other unique elements found on the short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL)-capable F-35B variant.

He also notes that the J-35 may have domestically-built WS-21 engines, with serrated exhausts to minimize its heat signature and other adaptations for a maritime environment.

As to how the F-35 and J-20 would face off against each other, Brent Eastwood notes in a November 2023 article for The National Interest (TNI) that the two stealth fighters would likely square off in a Taiwan Strait conflict.

Eastwood says that the F-25 has better stealth attributes than the J-20, with the latter being unable to see the former until a missile lock. However, he points out that while the J-20 is faster than the F-35, the Chinese jet does not have a cannon while the American one has better stealth characteristics.

He notes that pilot skills could determine who wins any dogfight.

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