US Dollar Forecast: US PCE To Guide Markets EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setups

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• US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
• EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
• GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
• USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• This week's focal point on the U.S. economic calendar revolves around the eagerly awaited release of January's PCE data on Friday
• A stronger-than-expected report could propel the U.S. dollar upwards, whereas subdued results may have a bearish impact on the American currency
• This article carefully examines the short-term technical outlook for three key FX pairs: EUR/USD , USD/JPY and GBP/USD

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Wall Street will be on edge this week ahead of a high-impact event on the U.S. calendar on Friday: the release of core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. This report is likely to amplify volatility and may alter sentiment, so traders should prepare for the possibility of wild price swings in order to better respond to sudden changes in market conditions.

January's core PCE is forecast to have increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, resulting in a slight decline in the yearly reading from 2.9% to 2.7% - a minor yet encouraging directional adjustment. However, traders should not be caught off guard if official results surprise to the upside, mirroring the trends and patterns seen in the CPI and PPI surveys a couple of weeks ago.

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Sticky price pressures, coupled with robust job growth and reaccelerating wages, may prompt the FOMC to delay the start of its easing cycle until the second half of the year and to deliver fewer cuts than anticipated. This scenario could shift interest rate expectations towards a more hawkish direction compared to their present outlook.

Higher interest rates for longer may keep U.S. Treasury yields tilted upwards in the near term, establishing a fertile ground for the U.S. dollar to build upon its 2024 recovery. With the greenback displaying a constructive bias, the euro , pound and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen may encounter challenges transitioning into March.

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EUR/USD rebounded this past week, but failed to decisively recapture its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0825. It's imperative to closely track this indicator in the coming days, as a push above it may trigger a rally towards 1.0890. On further strength, attention will turn to 1.0950.

Alternatively, if the pair gets rejected downwards from its current position and heads lower, technical support fist appears at 1.0725, followed by 1.0700. Beyond this threshold, additional weakness could prompt a retracement towards 1.0650.

EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

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