(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, December 28. Eurasian
Development Bank (EDB) has warned that if the global economic
recession deepens beyond initial expectations, it will primarily
impact Kyrgyzstan's external economic activities, Trend reports.
According to the bank's analysts, in case of worse scenario -
the slowdown in China's economy, a key supplier of components,
would likely decelerate industrial production in Kyrgyzstan and
reduce exports to EAEU countries. EDB expects this to weaken
domestic consumer demand, consequently slowing down the country's
overall economic activity.
"Risks of accelerating inflation prevail. The gradual increase
in electricity tariffs is under discussion. If approved, these
measures will have a one-time impact on inflation dynamics," the
bank said.
Additionally, prolonged increases in grain prices are
anticipated to have a more pronounced and widespread effect on
inflation expectations. There's an increased likelihood of
agricultural production price hikes in 2024 due to concerns over
low yields caused by projected low water levels.
In its essential forecast, the bank anticipates a 4.5-percent
GDP growth for Kyrgyzstan in 2024, driven by the implementation of
a state investment program funded by international development
institutions. Inflation is expected to slow down to 7.8 percent by
the end of 2024, primarily due to weakened domestic consumer
demand. In 2025–2026, inflation rates may stabilize at around 6
percent.
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