(MENAFN) In the aftermath of Ukraine's faltering counteroffensive against Russia and a perceived absence of a viable path to victory, Western allies are reportedly shifting their focus toward advocating for a "frozen" conflict along the current lines. According to Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman, even some of Ukraine's staunchest supporters are engaged in discussions about persuading President Volodymyr Zelensky's government to embrace a "frozen conflict" narrative and declare success over Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The change in strategy stems from a perceived lack of a "convincing theory of victory" over Russia in the current geopolitical landscape. Rachman, citing an unnamed former United States official, reports that the goal is to reshape the narrative, asserting that Putin has failed in his objectives. This approach would involve transitioning Ukrainian forces into a defensive posture to halt further Russian advances, leading to a "de facto freezing" of the conflict.
Under such a scenario, the intensity of the fighting would diminish, reminiscent of the armistice that ended combat operations in the Korean War in 1953. Notably, this strategic shift would not address the underlying political issues driving the conflict. However, proponents argue that a frozen conflict would allow Ukraine to concentrate on economic recovery, drawing parallels with South Korea's success in rebuilding its economy after the cessation of hostilities in the Korean War.
Rachman highlights the potential benefits for Ukraine, such as maintaining control over the Black Sea and the port of Odessa. Additionally, he notes that Ukraine has received approval to initiate negotiations to join the European Union. Advocates for this strategy propose combining European Union negotiations with increased financial and technical aid, thereby kickstarting the process of rebuilding Ukraine's economy.
As discussions unfold among international allies and within Ukraine's political circles, the prospect of a frozen conflict emerges as a pragmatic alternative, acknowledging the current geopolitical realities while allowing for economic recovery and strategic positioning. The evolving narrative underscores the complexities of navigating geopolitical challenges and the imperative for adaptive strategies in the face of shifting dynamics.
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