How Countries Prepare For Population Growth And Decline

A case in point is Japan, whose population peaked at 128 million in 2008 and has since shrunk to below 123 million. It is poised to decrease to 72 million by century's end, its decline sustained by a low fertility rate, an aging population (almost 30% of the population is 65 or older), and limited immigration. Initiatives to slow this decline include changing immigration laws and government-sponsored speed dating .

Remarkably, despite hitting a record low in 2022 , Japan's TFR is now higher than China's and South Korea's. Since 2006, South Korea has invested more than US$200 billion in establishing public daycare centers, free nurseries, subsidized childcare, and other initiatives to boost its TFR. But at 0.78 , South Korea's TFR remains the world's lowest.

South Korea's government also introduced immigration reforms in the early 21st century , all while leading the world in automation with 1,000 robots per 10,000 employees , more than double the rate of second-ranked Japan.

In Europe, efforts to boost populations have occurred for decades. For instance, Romania criminalized abortion and banned contraception except for certain medical conditions in 1966. Consequently, illegal abortions increased, and Romania had the highest maternal mortality rate in Europe in the 1980s.

While Romania's TFR stabilized at 2.3 by the late 1980s, it collapsed in the 1990s , alongside a population exothrough emigration that has been sustained after Romania joined the European Union in 2007.

Other Eastern European nations have experienced similar TFR declines and emigration. In contrast, Western European countries have managed to grow slightly since 2000, but largely only due to immigration . Even so, such countries as Italy have seen population declines, spurring initiatives by the government to offer houses to foreigners for as little as €1 in an effort to repopulate small towns .

Thehas a lower average age than most European countries and saw a rebound in TFR rates in the 2000s . But this dropped after the recession in 2008 and it has never recovered.

And unlike European countries, life expectancy continued to decline after the Covid-19 pandemic . Immigration has mitigated these issues, but as in Europe this has become increasingly political, and thepopulation growth rate has slowed considerably.

While there is no official policy to boost birth rates, thepromotes family-planning initiatives abroad.

Republican and Democrat administrations have meanwhile oscillated since 1984 between enforcing and rescinding the MexCity Policy, requiring foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs) not to“perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning” in order to receivegovernment funding for family-planning initiatives.

Russia's TFR faced a rapid decline after the collapse of the Soviet Union, reaching a low of 1.16 in 1999 , and causing a population decline. However, government initiatives saw it rebound to 1.8 in 2014 before falling again.

The Kremlin announced a desired TFR of 1.7 in 2020 , and increased payments for parents of at least two children. To stabilize its population further, Russia has also relied on immigration .

Iran's birth-rate policies have fluctuated over the last few decades. During the 1950s, Iran implemented fertility controls but abolished them after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, they were reintroduced in the late 1980s to release pressure on the economy.

Once seen as a“success story ,” Iran's TFR fell faster than anticipated to 1.6 in 2012. That year, the government began attempts to boost the birth rate by limiting access to birth control, abortion and vasectomies.

Although India now holds the mantle of the world's most populcountry, its TFR is now below replacement level . Nonetheless, its population will continue to grow, fueled by a large, youthful population, a demographic feature increasingly common across the Global South.

While India's population is eventually projected to begin declining by the 2060s , India is currently managing its youthful population through initiatives such as promoting employment opportunities abroad.

The perils of not utilizing a large working population extend beyond unrealized economic potential. Without economic prospects, large youthful populations can generate significant social and political upheaval. Pakistan is trying to reduce its population growth to avoid exacerbating strains on resources, infrastructure, education, and health-care systems.

Pakistan's concerns are similar to much of Africa. Aside from Afghanistan, the top 20 countries with the highest TFR are all in Africa . Nigeria's population is projected to grow from 213 million currently to 550 million in 2100 , while some projections see half of all births in Africa between 2020 and 2100. Even so, family-planning programs have helped slow growth in recent years across the continent.

In contrast, the experience of countries where campaigns supporting fertility have seen some success (including Germany , the Czech Republic and Hungary ) suggests direct financial incentives, tax breaks, cheap/free childcare centers, genermaternity/paternity leave, housing assistance, and more flexible approaches to work-life balance are successful at interrupting decline.

While gender equality has often been cited as a barrier to higher birth rates in the past, this no longer seems to be the case. Highly educated women had the lowest fertility rate in thein 1980 , for example, but this was not true in 2019.

Additionally, Mongolia's TFR declined from 7.3 kids per woman in 1974 to under two by 2005. But Mongolian birth rates then increased to around three children per woman by 2019, despite Mongolian women becoming better educated , increasingly represented in traditionally male-dominated fields , and having access to improved rural maternal health services .

Nonetheless, Mongolia's recent population boom
has resulted in
school crowding, pollution, housing problems, and other issues, and points to the need for flexible approaches to population growth, decline, and stabilization.

With a median age in Europe of 44.4 years and a median age of about 19 in Africa , different parts of the world will require different measures to deal with fluctuating population numbers this century.

China is not alone in the perception that it will grow old before it grows rich , and such countries will develop their own methods to deal with aging societies. Seeking the creation of long-term sustainable approaches to population management, which avoid coercion but also provide help for those raising children, should be prioritized.

This article was produced by Globetrotter , which provided it to Asia Times.