Sudan Conflict Might Affect Region, World If Left Unresolved

(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) News report by Al-Haitham Saleh
KUWAIT, May 15 (KUNA) -- Since erupting in mid-April 2023, the Sudanese conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has sent shockwaves in the region and if left unresolved it might spell disaster to the world.
While the two direct sides of the conflict insist on ending the situation militarily, regional and international efforts to bring an end to the dire situation had failed to stop the destruction that affected the capital Khartoum and other cities, which also resulted a huge number of casualties and displacement.
There are fears that the fighting would spill into the Nile Basin and the Horn of Africa, which are already regions of conflict and adding fuel to the fire might not seem the best choice for the Arab and African interest for stability and peace.
Speaking to KUNA on the matter, Dr. Zuhal Al-Ameen -- member of the committee drafting the transitional constitution of Sudan -- revealed that the conflict between the Sudanese army and RSF had been foreseen due to the locking of horns between the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council Abdul-Fattah Al-Bhurhan and the forces leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo.
The RSF, founded by former President Omar Al-Bashir to support him in his conflict in Darfur in 2003, had increased its influence, transforming itself to an entity separated from the regular military with a strategic, military and ideological depth, she said.
The RSF's gains have caused a serious conflict with the army despite a parliamentary law in 2017, whereas the former was in some capacity was "integrated" into the ranks of the latter.
Despite what seemed as a political resolution through the signing of an agreement between the army and the civilian Forces of Freedom and Change in December 2022, the deal left out a necessary component, which was resolving the RSF and army's matters dispute, she indicated.
Ameen said that the RSF found it very difficult to integrate into the state-run institution due to the lack of incentive especially with the forces being well off economically.
As in the case of conflicts, the situation in Sudan was not so different with the right-wing conservative bloc at the throat of left-wing progressives and central leftists.
This is evident in the 2018 revolution, which started by left leaning forces.
Dr. Amani Al-Taweel -- Director of the African program at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies -- said that the butting of heads between the left and right wing, in this case the conservative mentality of the military and liberal civilians, was a classic ingredient that could cause strife anywhere and at any time.
While, the military component has its so-called civilian outreach to exercise political pressure, the situation becomes more convoluted as the armed conflict continues, she added.
Al-Taweel predicted that the conflict would continue for the foreseeable future due each party's agendas and ambitions.
The fear of civil war is also on the horizon if the armed conflict was left without serious efforts to resolve it, she affirmed.
If the army wins its battles in Khartoum, the situation would remain the same with the RSF, which has security and political stability in Darfur, said Al-Taweel, pointing out that there were fears of rebellion against the central government as the economic and political situation continue to deteriorate.
She stressed that foreign initiatives to bring peace in Sudan must have a ground-level mechanism to actually end the violence, warning that imposing sanctions, as in the case of the Darfur conflict years ago, would not be a viable solution.
In regards to sanctions, American affairs analyst based in Washington, Tarek Al-Shammi indicated that threatening sanctions against Sudan would only complicate the matter and increase the misery of the Sudanese people.
He foresaw that the US role in the conflict would remain as a coordinator with Arab entities to bring an effective ceasefire and return the promise of civilian rule in Sudan.
Sudan had lived a collective 17 years of relative peace since independence some 70 years ago, the current conflict might be the heaviest in the country's history, which caused fears in Washington of the lack of commitment to various ceasefire agreements, and then probably the ghost of civil war, he noted.
Whether the situation in Sudan affecting nearby countries, Member of the Geopolitical Committee of the International Association for Political Science in the United States, Anas Al-Qassas said that the matter might turn into this alarming development due to the groups involved with the RSF.
The members of the RSF based their loyalty of tribal connections in Darfur and elsewhere, revealed Al-Qassas who added that the air superiority of the Sudanese army would push the RSF to reposition itself in the west and southwest, bringing the Sudanese conflict nearer to nearby countries such as Chad and others.
He indicated that the fear of spillage led the US army to redeploy in its bases in Niger knowing that the conflict might longer to resolve in light of lack of political incentive. (end)
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