(MENAFN- The Conversation) Many people are familiar with – torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there's also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities.
Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing .
Flash droughts also can increase wildfire risks, , which harms fish and other aquatic life.
These satellite images show the development of a flash drought in the U.S. Southeast in early September 2019. The event began when a stubborn ridge of high-pressure air hung over the region for several weeks, bringing record-breaking temperatures, dry air and very little rain. Evaporative stress is a measure of how 'thirsty' the atmosphere is. Move the slider to see the change in moisture.
Less rain, warmer air
Flash droughts typically result from a combination of lower-then-normal precipitation and higher temperatures. Together, these factors reduce overall land surface moisture.
Water constantly cycles between land and the atmosphere. Under normal conditions, moisture from rainfall or snowfall accumulates in the soil during wet seasons. Plants draw water up through their roots and release water vapor into the air through their leaves, a process called . Some moisture also evaporates directly from the soil into the air.
Water constantly circulates between soil and the atmosphere – sometimes directly, sometimes via plants. Scientists refer to the amount of water that could be transferred from the land to the atmosphere as – a measure of how“thirsty” the atmosphere is. Higher temperatures increase evaporative demand, which makes water evaporate faster. When soil contains enough moisture, it can meet this demand.
But if soil moisture is depleted – for example, if precipitation drops below normal levels for months – then evaporation from the land surface can't provide all the moisture that a thirsty atmosphere demands. Reduced moisture at the surface increases surface air temperatures, drying out the soil further. These processes , making the area increasingly hot and dry.
Moist regions can have flash droughts
Flash droughts started receiving more attention in the U.S. after that reduced crop yields and increased wildfire risks. In 2012, areas in the Midwest that had had near-normal precipitation conditions through May fell into severe drought conditions in June and July, causing more than .
New England, typically one of the , experienced a flash drought in the summer of 2022, with areas including Boston and Rhode Island . Across Massachusetts, critically low water levels forced towns to issue for residents.
Planning for flash droughts in a changing climate
Conventional droughts, like the or the current , develop over periods of years. Scientists rely on monitoring and prediction tools, such as measurements of temperature and rainfall, as well as models, to forecast their evolution.
Predicting flash drought events that occur on monthly to weekly time scales is much harder with current data and tools, largely due to the . That's why weather forecasters don't typically make projections – there is a lot of variation in what can happen over longer time spans.
And climate patterns can shift from year to year, adding to the challenge. For example, Boston had before its very dry summer in 2022.
Scientists expect climate change to make precipitation , especially in wetter regions like the U.S. Northeast. This will make it more difficult to forecast and prepare for flash droughts well in advance.
But new monitoring tools that measure evaporative demand can provide for regions experiencing abnormal conditions. Information from these systems can give farmers and utilities sufficient lead time to adjust their operations and minimize their risks.