The F-35 Won't Be Canceled Anytime Soon

That's what happened on December 5, 2011 when a US RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone was electronically captured by the Iranians over the town of Kashmar. The Iranians knew about the use of Sentinel drones over its territory, used to track Iran's nuclear program, but needed to find a way to intercept them. Watching the communications, they were able (probably with help from Russia) to build a controller and devised a way to grab control of the drone and land it. The Iranian pilot did fairly well, but his landing was rough and a wing was broken and the underside of the drone damaged. Even so it was a spectacular coup by Iran, and gave Iran and Russia access to a top secret platform with capabilities far greater than anything the Russians, or even the Chinese, had at the time.

The RQ-170 drone program remains highly classified, but other than the B-21 Raider, it is the only stealth drone in the US inventory. The B-21 is a strategic bomber, but it is believed to be able to operate without a crew as a smart drone. The B-21 program is hugely expensive, with the price of each platform closing in on $1 billion per copy.

Israel has a sizable inventory of drones -surveillance, command and control and attack types. But Israel's Air Force (IAF) relies on manned aircraft for its operations. Israel's version of the F-35 is called Adir (Mighty One). It is a customized version of the F-35 that includes domestically developed electronic countermeasures and does not include Lockheed's logistics tracking system (as that would mean its aircraft would be tracked, a significant vulnerability in the F-35 program). The Adir also supports Israeli weapons, air to air weapons such as Python and standoff weapons such as the Popeye Turbo with an accuracy better than 3 meters (9.8 feet).

It should not be forgotten that a key advantage of a full-sized aircraft over a drone is the weapon's load, including smart weapons, and the ability to shift to alternative targets. Drones are much more limited, and drones that can release actual weapons (for example the Hellfire missile or small unguided weapons) don't have the punch that a big platform brings to the table. Today's trend is to build drones that fly along with fighter aircraft or even bombers. It remains to be seen if these newer companion drones really augment air force capabilities. Examples include the Russian Okhotnik-B S-70 and the US XQ-58A Valkyrie. While we do not know the costs (including R&D) for the Russian drone, the Valkyrie is likely priced at around $25 million a copy, about a third of the cost of the F-35. These models are unproven and their functionality in combat mostly speculative.

Future drones will increasingly use artificial intelligence and synthetic mapping to hit targets, reducing if not eliminating radio communications but still relying on GPS satellites for course correction. One problem in this approach is that there is a considerable delay between an actual strike and reporting on the success of the attack, as the protection of the drone requires operating in silent mode. Probably additional drones will be needed to assess results, or satellites capable of surveying targets attacked.

Israel attacked Iranian targets using non-stealth fighter aircraft such as the F-15 and F-16 and the F-35 whose main function was to take out Iran's air defenses. Along the way Israel also crippled Iranian early warning radars in Syria and Iraq. Below is a map of the targets in Iran successfully hit by the IAF raid prepared by the Institute for the Study of War:

We actually know very little about the logistics of Israel's operation against Iran. No doubt that information is highly classified. However it is obvious that Israel's attack, even taking into account the significant restrictions imposed by the Biden administration, was a great success.

Similarly Israel was successful in knocking out Syrian air defenses, again reportedly using its F-35s. The Israeli operations in Syria and Iran are the first use of the F-35 against Russian-produced air defenses, demonstrating the value of the stealth feature of the aircraft.

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There is a strong lesson for potential adversaries including Russia. The Russians lacked stealth technology until recently. Russia's Su-57 fighter bomber has recently
been upgraded
to enhance its stealth characteristics (meaning reducing its radar signature). The Russians also are developing a more advanced stealth fighter, the Su-75 Checkmate. And Russia also is building a stealth bomber (the US already has the B-2 and is soon to deploy the B-21 Raider), the Tu-PAK-DA (expected to go into production in 2027).

The Russians have also been pushing to develop technologies that can detect enemy stealth aircraft. Low observable technology is built around the idea of reducing radar signatures dramatically in X-band radar. X-band radars are the dominant type of air defense radar sets worldwide. Alternative radars, such as
L Band
or
VHF , can detect stealth aircraft but they are range limited and not accurate enough for most countermeasures. (The Russians have built L Band radars
into the wings of the Su-57
and other aircraft including the Su-27, to give them an ability to detect US stealth fighters.)

General layout of the Tikhomirov NIIP L-band AESA radar antenna design, in the leading edge flap of an Su-27 Flanker aircraft. Image: Tikhomirov NIIP

In the United States those who want to cancel the F-35 program will have to answer the question of why production should be stopped on the F-35, a platform that tackled Russian air defenses and an expansionist Iran and taught both of them a lesson.

Stephen Bryen is an Asia Times correspondent and served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article was first published on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy and is republished with permission.

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