Position Paper: Jordan's Eyes On The Coming Regime In Syria..Ncern Over Political Islam

(MENAFN- Amman Net) The fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a critical turning point in the region, shifting the focus to the nature of the future political system and its repercussions on neighboring countries, especially Jordan. This paper reflects Jordan's stance on Syria's future, including fears of the rise of an Islamic regime or political Islam movements. It analyzes how these developments might affect Jordan's relations with domestic Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and explores potential scenarios for future Jordanian-Syrian relations.

Jordan's Background on the Syrian Crisis1. Geopolitical and Strategic Location

Due to its geographic position, Jordan has been on high alert since the beginning of the Syrian crisis in 2011. The shared border with Syria has been a source of security and economic challenges, with Jordan hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees and dealing with security threats arising from chaos in the border areas.

2. Jordan's Policy Toward Syria

Jordan has adopted a pragmatic approach to the Syrian crisis, supporting political solutions and opposing direct military interventions. It has also maintained communication with various actors, including the regime and opposition, to safeguard its strategic interests.

Jordanian Concerns About Syria's Future Political System1. The Rise of an Islamic Regime

Jordan is deeply concerned about the potential for Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham and other political Islam movements to dominate Syria's new political system. Such an outcome could directly unsettle Jordan in two ways:

• Ideologically: These movements might strengthen the influence of Islamist groups within Jordan.
• Security-wise: Open borders might lead to the influx of radical elements, creating a safe haven for extremist groups.

2. Escalation of Political Islam Movements

The fall of Assad's regime might create a power vacuum exploited by movements like the Muslim Brotherhood or Salafi groups:

• Muslim Brotherhood in Syria: Although their influence has diminished over the last decade, they could leverage the post-Assad era to rebuild their power.
• Salafi-Jihadi Groups: These groups might bolster their presence in northern Syria, posing security threats to Jordan.

3. Impact on Jordan's Domestic Scene

• Strengthening Islamist Opposition: Any victory for political Islam in Syria could inspire the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan to escalate their political demands.
• State-Islamist Tensions: The Jordanian government might face heightened Islamist rhetoric, complicating its relationship with the Brotherhood.

Future Jordan-Syria Relations1. Potential Scenarios

• Moderate Political System:
  If a comprehensive and moderate political system is established in Syria, Jordan could strengthen its relations with this system to ensure border stability.
  • This scenario would open opportunities for economic cooperation and Syria's reconstruction.
• Rise of an Islamic Regime:
  • Jordan may have to adopt stricter security policies along the borders.
  • This could lead to stronger alliances with regional and international actors opposing political Islam, such as Gulf states and Egypt.
• Ongoing Chaos:
  • Failure to establish a stable system in Syria would keep the borders a constant security concern.
  • Jordan would need to enhance its military and intelligence alliances with the U.S. and Russia to ensure its security.

2. Challenges

• Balancing Security and Diplomacy:
  Jordan must navigate relations with the new Syrian regime cautiously to protect its security and political interests.
• Addressing Armed Groups:
  Future relations will require coordination to combat terrorism and control arms smuggling.

The Impact of Syrian Developments on Jordan's Political Islam1. The Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood poses a significant challenge to Jordan's official institutions:

• Influence of Syrian Changes:
  If the Brotherhood gains power in Syria, it might escalate its political ambitions in Jordan.
• Reorganizing Relations:
  Jordan will need a clear strategy to manage its relationship with the Brotherhood while maintaining domestic stability.

2. Salafi Movements

Salafi-jihadi groups remain a major security concern. Their success in Syria could encourage their supporters in Jordan to expand their activities.

Future Scenarios1. Balanced Scenario

In this scenario, Syria's new system manages to balance various political forces, paving the way for regional cooperation.

2. Political Islam Dominance

If political Islam dominates the new system, Jordan-Syria relations will face significant security and political challenges.

3. Continued Chaos

Failure to establish a stable regime in Syria would lead to prolonged armed conflicts, negatively affecting neighboring countries.

Conclusion and RecommendationsConclusion

Jordan faces considerable challenges in dealing with Syria's future political system. The situation demands a balanced strategy that accounts for security and political interests while minimizing negative repercussions on Jordan's domestic scene.

Recommendations

Enhancing Regional and International Cooperation: To stabilize Syria and prevent the rise of extremist groups.

Monitoring Syrian Developments Closely: To proactively address potential threats.

Promoting Dialogue with Domestic Political Islam: To ensure internal stability.

Improving Economic Conditions: To mitigate the impact of regional fallout on Jordan's internal affairs. References

Lister, Charles. The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency. Oxford University Press, 2015.

Abu Rumman, Mohammad. The Islamists and the Arab Spring: Trajectories of Transformation. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2019.

Heller, Sam. "Keeping the Peace in Idlib: The Role of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham." International Crisis Group, 2020.

Reports and analyses from reputable media outlets such as BBC, Reuters, and Foreign Policy.

Studies and reports from regional and international research centers on the Syrian situation.

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