(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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Diplomacy often comes with a delicate balancing act, but
sometimes it slips into overt interference. The European Union's
monitoring mission in Armenia, touted as a peace initiative in the
South Caucasus, seems to carry ulterior motives behind the scenes.
Under the surface of their proclaimed neutrality lies a strategy
that raises questions about the EU's intentions and effectiveness
in facilitating regional peace.
The EU mission arrived in October 2022, initially planned as a
two-month deployment to monitor the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
However, what began as a temporary arrangement soon expanded into a
long-term commitment. By December 2023, the EU Foreign Affairs
Council approved an increase in personnel, from 138 to 209 members,
allegedly to "strengthen" the mission. Yet, what followed was not a
strengthening of peace but an injection of distrust, especially on
the Azerbaijani side.
Azerbaijan has consistently warned that the mission must not
serve as an excuse for Armenia to avoid honouring its commitments,
particularly regarding border delimitation and normalisation. But
the expansion of the mission has been seen as an intrusion rather
than a solution-one that disrupts bilateral efforts and creates
friction instead of fostering dialogue.
For instance, just a few days ago, Azerbaijani president Ilham
Aliyev had underscored the EU's 'binocular diplomacy' while
receiving the credentials of the newly appointed Belgium
ambassador. While emphasising Brussels as a key platform for the
successful negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the head of
state also touched upon the EU's policy in the region. Suggesting
that the European Union should preserve neutrality in the
Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, which has always been the case,
adding that the EU had never been active during the occupation
period. The President pointed out that back then, numerous
approaches to the EU and other European institutions were met with
the response that the Minsk Group was responsible and that the EU
had no involvement.
"However, the EU seems to be actively involved now.
Unfortunately, we see that some figures in Brussels, at EU
headquarters, have taken sides. This is counterproductive. It only
creates mistrust and isolates the EU from the normalisation
process. My recommendation, if I may offer this recommendation for
the sake of continued cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan,
would be to avoid the footsteps of France and not to find
themselves under France's influence, because France's policy has
been absolutely destructive and remains absolutely destructive with
respect to the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalisation process."
Furthermore, he stated that the behaviour of the members of this
mission, the so-called binocular diplomacy, was absolutely
unacceptable and was beyond any standards of normal political
culture and Azerbaijan will continue to raise these issues in its
communications with the EU:
“And the last point regarding the EU-Azerbaijan relationship,
which has increased certain mistrust, was the way the so-called
“European Observation Mission” on our border was prolonged without
any agreement or even consulting with Azerbaijan. Why was it
necessary?! Azerbaijan had agreed in October 2022 in Prague that
the mission was supposed to stay for a couple of months with a
limited number of retired military officers. However, when the
mission was prolonged, they did not consult with us,” the
Azerbaijani leader noted, adding that discussions are ongoing for
further extension.
The EU's actions have raised suspicions about its true
intentions. Joint patrols conducted by the EU observers and
Armenian military units signal the empowerment of Armenia's
revanchist factions. This, in turn, emboldens Yerevan to adopt an
obstructive stance in negotiations while pursuing military
rearmament. In essence, the EU's involvement appears to serve
Armenia's strategic interests more than fostering peace.
Well, notably, it is claimed that Armenia had decided that they
will not extend the mandate of the EU observer mission in the
country for its further operations. If confirmed, this development
would mark the mission's end. However, with Armenia's recent moves
to distance itself from Russian influence, there is speculation
that Yerevan might seek other international allies to fill the
security gap. It is no coincidence that this news appeared shortly
after the decision to leave the Russian army. As we have previously
mentioned in one of our articles , this adjustment hints at Yerevan's
increasing inclination to limit Russian influence over its borders,
a move that could be seen as paving the way for foreign
(non-Russian) actors, potentially from the West, to fill the
vacuum. So in short, one Western actor leaves, and the other
substitutes it. However, the question remains: Will these new
actors contribute to regional peace, or will they deepen divisions
even further? Taking into consideration that one of the possible
nominees is France, the first part of the question may age like
milk.
Let's hope our prediction turns out incorrect and Yerevan
chooses to act as a party willing to sign a peace agreement.
Because the South Caucasus does not need any external actors
playing geopolitical chess-it needs genuine diplomacy and
cooperation between the neighbours themselves.
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