(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Akbar Novruz
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The Israel-Hamas conflict has revived concerns about a sharp
rise in oil prices. While the war has not escalated into a
full-scale regional conflict, oil prices have surged by nearly 10%,
reaching $78 per barrel. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on
Iran's activity, with some attributing the price surge to the
country's involvement. With Azerbaijan's 2025 budget planning for
oil revenues based on a $70-per-barrel forecast, the question
arises:
How will geopolitical tensions affect oil markets and
Azerbaijan's economy?
Azernews consulted several prominent experts to
analyze the developments.
Ilham Shaban, Head of the Caspian Barrel Oil Research
Center
"Of course, the Israel-Palestine war, which started a year ago,
is now expanding its geography. From September 30, it looks set to
spread further with a potential conflict with Lebanon, and we've
already witnessed powerful missile strikes by Iran in late
September and early October. Israel, in turn, attacked Houthi bases
in Yemen. All these developments have pushed oil prices up by more
than 10%.
However, despite the risks, oil prices remain within the $78-80
range, well below the $100 mark. Why don't these risks push prices
higher? The answer lies in supply. Global oil production remains
strong. For instance, Iran, which used to produce 2.4-2.5 million
barrels per day five to ten years ago, has increased its output to
3.35 million barrels per day as of September. Iraq's production has
also risen to 4 million barrels daily, compared to less than 1
million barrels a decade ago.
Additionally, the global economy has slowed down
since the Russia-Ukraine war, weakening demand. China, a major
energy consumer, is growing at a much slower pace-6.4-6.5% GDP
growth, which is low by its standards. With such factors in play,
oil prices remain below 80 dollars.
It is impossible to predict the year-end price accurately.
Markets are highly volatile, and unexpected developments-such as
Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure or Iran retaliating
against Haifa's refinery-could disrupt prices overnight. On the
other hand, tensions might ease, bringing stability.
For now, oil prices are likely to stay between $70 and $75, a
level that satisfies both investors and buyers. Ultimately, oil
prices are driven more by geopolitical decisions than market
demand, making them difficult to forecast accurately."
Azerbaijani Economist Natig Jafarli
"Oil prices are primarily influenced by news headlines.
Escalating tensions involving Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas-as
well as attacks on tankers by the Houthis-have all contributed to
the recent price surge. However, macroeconomic conditions play a
more significant role in the long run. China's economic slowdown,
for example, is reducing global oil consumption, which puts
downward pressure on prices. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle
East ease, oil prices could fall to the $55-65 range. The outcome
of the U.S. elections will also impact the oil market. If Trump
wins, his administration might take steps to lower global oil
prices."
Regarding the possible effects on Azerbaijan's economy,
expert suggests that the country should take a cautious
approach:
"Azerbaijan should take a cautious approach. Setting the 2025
budget with oil priced at $70 per barrel introduces considerable
risk. While prices may stay at that level, they could also drop
unexpectedly. A more conservative estimate of $55 per barrel would
provide a safety cushion. If market conditions improve by mid-year,
Azerbaijan could adjust the forecast upward to $70-75 per
barrel."
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