(MENAFN- Asia Times)
As Liberal Democratic Party members struggle to pick the next prime Minister of Japan, there is a vote that will not be counted but matters a lot – who does Washington want to be Japan's next leader?
The most obvious answer to that question is that Washington doesn't care. At the senior levels of government and policymakers,“they could care less,” a former senior government official who remains deeply engaged with Japan told Toyo Keizai.“At the expert level, there are preferences. But no one in Washington is talking about it all.”
One reason for this lack of interest is also obvious – Americans are deeply engaged with their own, highly contested election. But the unique nature of the Japanese party election makes it confusing, not least because of the very large field of candidates.
And ultimately, Americans assume, perhaps wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to change Japan's foreign and domestic policy.
Still, for American policymakers and experts, it matters who emerges as Japan's next leader. What is most important for the US is“who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Japanese public, that delivers an economic agenda that is sustainable, that allows Japan to keep up its defense expenditures and encourages the Japanese economy to be a key hub in global supply chains,” says Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the premier Japan experts in Washington.
“Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe [Shinzo] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance,” says Ambassador Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.
Along with that, Americans are looking for“somebody who can work with the ROK (South Korea), and somebody who has strong domestic support, who can bring the LDP back together.” That said, Donovan and others I spoke to offer a“huge caveat” – what might happen if leadership changes in the US.
If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she“will be looking for the strongest possible Japanese prime minister,” says the former senior official, who wished to remain anonymous.“Whereas Trump will be looking for which prime minister he can manipulate.”
Abe was able to“both impress the US president and also stand up for Japan. It is really important that whoever meets with Trump is able to exude self-confidence as a global leader.” Within that broad framework, Japan offers its own views on who might best fit those requirements.
How Washington sees the candidates
Leaving aside the question of the ability to project a reformist image that can rally voters back to the scandal-tarnished conservative ruling party, American policymakers tend to favor the most experienced figures in the LDP, particularly those who have long interacted with Washington.
“Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi [Yoshimasa],” said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read“Observing Japan” newsletter.
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